NFL Week 17 is here! The final regular-season week with all teams in action to choose from before the Playoffs! Playoffs? (insert your best Jim Mora voice). Tommy’s 5 picks last week combined for a 41.0 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Dwayne Haskins leading the way with (13.3 DKFP). Too bad Haskins could not return from an ankle injury to know how many DKFP he could have had, oh well. Now let’s get to our week 17 picks.
With Dwayne Haskins (ankle) already ruled out, Case Keenum will get the start this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Keenum has fought being injured and benched this year, but when he has been on the field, Case has put up respectable fantasy stats. Matter of fact, when he has at least 20 pass attempts he is averaging 19.7 DKFP/GM this year. The Cowboys offer a decent matchup, ranking 24th in pass DVOA and allowing 17.9 DKFP/GM to QB’s in 2019. Keenum is way to cheap in this spot, considering he already hit value in this same match up Week 2, throwing for 221 yards and 2 TD’s good for 16.7 DKFP.
Aaron Jones should see a full workload this week versus the Detroit Lions with Jamal Williams (shoulder) doubtful to play. On the year Jones is averaging 66 rushing yards/GM, 18.2 opportunities/GM (opportunities = rushing attempts + targets), 21.3 DKFP/GM and has scored 19 total TD’s (1st among RB’s). Detroit has been a disaster defensively this year, ranking 21st in rushing yards allowed/GM (115.7) and 29th in DKFP/GM allowed to opposing RB’s (29.4 DKFP). Green Bay is playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFL and a first-round bye, so I expect them to lean heavily on the run game, especially in a plus matchup.
Ever since Calvin Ridley (abdomen) was placed on IR two weeks ago, Julio Jones has erupted with a 23-300-2 receiving line, also seeing 15+ targets/GM during that span. This week he gets a match up with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers funnel defense that ranks No. 1 in run defense DVOA but No. 15 in pass-defense DVOA. On the season, Tampa Bay has allowed the 4th most passing yards/GM (269 yards), the 2nd most total air yards (5191) and the 7th most total passing TD’s (29). While Julio Jones ranks inside the top five among WR’s in total receptions (92), total reception yards (1316), total air yards (1801) and target share (25%). Julio has had success against his division foe, averaging over 100 yards/GM and nearly a TD/GM in 15 career games against Tampa Bay. I’ll lock in Julio this week with the certainty that he should see all the targets he can handle, especially in a game implied for a slate high 48 total points.
The Titans find themselves in a crucial match up this week against the Houston Texans. Plain and simple, the Titans win and they are in the playoffs. Smith has been a major bright spot for Tennessee, especially since Delanie Walker (ankle) has been dealing with injuries all year. The last three weeks Smith has seen nearly 5 targets/GM, 3.7 receptions/GM, 51 receiving yards/GM and has scored two total TD’s. The Titans have been finding ways to get their electric playmaker the ball, as evidenced by his one rushing attempt for 57 yards two weeks ago against this same Texans team. I plan on taking some shots on Jonnu Smith the week, especially against a Houston defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards/GM (270.3).
The Packers close out the season this week on the road against the Detroit Lions. Don’t look now, but Green Bay’s defense appears to be getting hot right before the playoffs. In the last four weeks, they have averaged an impressive 3 sacks, 2 turnovers and have allowed a measly 12.75 ppg good for 10.25 DKFP/GM. David Blough has been moving in the opposite direction ever since his Thanksgiving Day heroics versus the Chicago Bears. The last three weeks Blough has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s, averaging an uninspiring 9.70 DKFP/GM. With the Packers heavy favorites (-12.5) and the Lions implied for the second-lowest point total on the week (15.25), I feel comfortable rolling out Green Bays defense this week.
These will be the core players we will utilize in our Week 17 NFL DraftKings GPP and Cash lineups for Sunday 12/29/19. Good Luck and Happy New Year!
NFL Week 16 is here and we are back to give you more DraftKings players to consider for your GPP and cash lineups. If you tailed Tommy’s picks last you already know those 5 players combined for a whopping 105.1 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Chris Carson leading the way with (29.7 DKFP). Our screens went green and we hope yours were too. Now let’s get to our week 16 picks.
Haskins is coming off his best game as a professional last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, throwing for 261 yards and 2 TD’s while adding another 26 yards on the ground, finishing with 20 DKFP. It’s interesting that his price only increased $100 this week, considering he is facing a New York Giants funnel defense that ranks 8th against the run but 30th against the pass in DVOA. The Giants are allowing the eighth most DKFP/GM to opposing QB’s (22.5 DKFP), giving Haskins massive upside at his pedestrian price tag.
It’s the holiday season, a time for giving and spreading joy. Santa Clause appears to have made an early stop in Cincinnati this year and gave Joe Mixon the best gift of all, a match up with the Miami Dolphins. On the year, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most rushing yards/GM (141) and the seventh most DKFP/GM (28.4 DKFP) to opposing RB’s. Mixon has been game flow independent the last three weeks, seeing an average of 26 opportunities (opportunities = carries + targets) per game, while also averaging 23.1 DKFP/GM during that span.
It feels wrong writing about a Charger this week, considering how inconsistent their offense has been. But the fact of the matter is, Allen is way too cheap this week versus the Oakland Raiders. In 2019, Allen ranks top ten in total targets (129), total receptions (90), receiving yards (1046) and target share (25%) among WR’s. He gets a fantastic match up with a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA and allows 37.8 DKFP/GM to opposing WR’s (21st). With the possibility of this being Philip Rivers last home game, I think Allen balls out this week for his QB.
The Eagles are massively depleted at wide receiver. Alshon Jeffery (foot), DeSean Jackson (abdomen) are already out and Nelson Agholor (knee) is questionable as they face the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday in a battle for the NFC East crown. Just play Ertz, don’t overthink this one. Sometimes I wish I could be that blunt, but here are some supporting stats. While Dallas ranks 8th in DvP (defense vs position) against WR’s they rank 30th in DvP against TE’s, allowing the 5th most DKFP/GM (14.6 DKFP) to the position. Ertz ranks top 5 in total targets (122), receptions (84), reception yards (888), air yards (1103), touchdowns (6) and target share (24%) among tight ends. With all the injuries and the importance of this game, the Eagles should lean heavily on Ertz.
Its Week 16 in the NFL, which means things can get a little crazy. Enter the Titans defense this week at home versus the New Orleans Saints. This is a play built upon the fact that the Titans are extremely cheap and host a Saints team that can struggle offensively when outside the Superdome. The Saints have averaged 22 points/GM in their last nine road games, as opposed to 27 points/GM in their last nine home games. The Titans defense has been producing fantasy points lately, with six turnovers, six sacks and two defensive touchdowns in their last three games. Tennessee needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. With that said, I’ll have plenty of the Titans defense this week, especially at their bargain price tag.
There you go. These will be the core players we will utilize in our Week 16 NFL DraftKings GPP and Cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck and Happy Holidays!
NFL Week 15 is here and we are back to give you more DraftKings players to consider for your GPP and cash lineups. Last week our 6 picks combined for 64.3 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Christian McCaffrey leading the way with (24.5 DKFP).
From everyone at FHW – thank you to all our loyal readers. We will keep researching, reading box scores, and grinding through stats to bring you DraftKings picks to make your screens go green. Normally we start with a game stack but this week we want to give you our picks for each position. Now onto the good stuff…
I love the price on Kyler Murray this week on DraftKings. The last time he was $5,600 or less was Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens where he put up 19.36 DKFP. The price drop is warranted as Murray has averaged only 13.64 DKFP/GM the last two weeks. But it’s worth noting that those games came against the Pittsburgh Steelers (5th ranked pass defense) and the Los Angeles Rams (10th ranked pass defense). This week Murray gets a much better matchup against a Cleveland Browns defense that is allowing 18.3 DKFP/GM to opposing QB’s (14th). Cleveland’s Achilles heel on defense has specifically been against quarterbacks that can run.
Murray is no stranger to tucking and running as he sees an average of 6 rushing attempts/GM. At his current price and in this matchup, Murray is a high upside option this week on DraftKings and one who will be heavily represented in our lineups this week.
Carson played 55 of 67 offensive snaps last week, with Rashad Penny (knee) exiting and ultimately being ruled out for the foreseeable future. This week the Seahawks are projected to score 27 points (3rd highest on the main slate) against the Carolina Panthers who are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards/GM (139.2). Carson ranks in the top ten among RB’s in Snaps (68.3%), Rushing attempts/GM (19), Rushing yards/GM (88), Red zone opportunities/GM (3.44) and most importantly DKFP/GM (18.3). With the increased usage he should have no problem against Carolina’s defense, who have allowed the second-most DKFP/GM to RB’s (30.8 DKFP) in 2019. Run Chris RUN!
Hopkins leads all WR’s on the main slate in target market share (32.5%), receiving yards/GM (90), DKFP/GM (20.8 DKFP) and total air yards (1,444). He gets a matchup this week with a Tennessee Titans defense that is allowing 260 passing yards/GM (25th) and 35.6 DKFP/GM (17th) to opposing WR’s in 2019. With a slate high projected total of 50 points and the Texans 3 point dogs, Vegas is expecting a high scoring shootout and that works perfectly in favor of Hopkins and my roster construction for WR top dog this week.
With Gerald Everett (knee) trending towards being out, Higbee is in another prime spot this week and at a ridiculously cheap price tag. In the last two weeks (with Everett out), Higbee has caught 14 of 19 targets for 223 yards and 1 TD, averaging 24.2 DKFP/GM. He now gets a match up with a Dallas Cowboys defense that is allowing the sixth-most catches (5.5) and the tenth most DKFP/GM (13.3 DKFP) to opposing tight ends. With his increased usage and in a game implied for 49 total points, I’m locking Higbee in at TE, especially if Everett is ultimately ruled out.
The Chiefs are massive home favorites (-9.5) this week against Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos. Kansas City seems to have flipped the script after allowing 23.9 points/GM the first ten weeks, they have allowed 14 points/GM the last three weeks (vs the Chargers, Raiders, and Patriots). Over that three week span they also have 7 sacks and a whopping 8 turnovers. Although Drew Lock has looked competent in his first two starts, he is still a rookie who is prone to mistakes. With that in mind, I will have plenty of shares of the Chiefs defense this week at home versus an inferior division opponent.
There you go. These will be the core players we will utilize in our Week 15 NFL DraftKings GPP and Cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
HappyFriday the 13thcappers! We may be superstitious when it comes to sports, in full disclosure I kept a Mark Grace baseball card in my hat while playing high school baseball because the first time I did I went 3-4 with 2 RBIs in a win. That card was destroyed by the end of the season but I never took it out of my hat again. However, when value and a good wager opportunity comes along, no Friday the 13th superstition is scary enough to keep us away from cashing a ticket. Now, let’s get to our pick for Friday the 13th!
The Charlotte Hornets (11-16) travel to the windy city to take on the Chicago Bulls (9-17) at the United Center with tip-off scheduled for 8:00 ET.
Game Line
Money Line
Spread
Total Points
Charlotte
+220
+6.5
over 212.5
Chicago
-278
-6.5
under 212.5
Now, let’s take a look at how each team performs against the lines:
Charlotte
Chicago
14 – 13
Against The Spread
13 – 13
11 – 16
Straight Up
9 – 7
106/113.8
Points For/Points Against
106.6/105.7
14 – 13
Over/Under/Push
12 – 14
CHARLOTTE
After losing 16 of their first 25 games of the season, the Hornets are looking for their third win in a row after back-to-back victories over the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets. Second-year guard Devonte’ Graham who is averaging 20.0 ppg scored a career-high 40 points on 12-for-21 shooting, going 7 of 12 from beyond the arc, in Charlotte’s 113-108 win over the Nets on Wednesday. Graham continues to improve having scored over 20 points in 4 of his last 5 games. Charlotte is averaging 106 points per game, shooting 44 percent from the field and 37 percent from three-point range. The Hornets have struggled defensively, giving up 113.8 (27th) points per game. The Hornets are playing well and have confidence after 2 tightly contested victories, I expect more high-quality play tonight from head coach James Borrego‘s squad.
CHICAGO
In their last game, the Bulls defeated The Atlanta Hawks 136-102 Wednesday night. Zach LaVine led the way for the Bulls with 35 points and four assists, while Lauri Markkanen added 22 points and four rebounds as Chicago snapped a three-game slide. Wendall Carter Jr. added 11 points and 10 rebounds while Coby White chipped in with 19 points. I like the Bulls to come to play tonight and try to secure back to back wins at home. With the Bulls currently (T22) in points allowed with 105.7, I would expect points to be in abundance tonight.
This is the third game of four between Charlotte and Chicago during the regular season. Charlotte won at home 126-125 on Oct. 23 in the season opener for both teams. The teams met again in Charlotte on Nov. 23, but that time the Bulls held on for a 116-115 win. Both those games went to the over and I see more of the same tonight. Expect more offense than defense in this contest as I will gladly take the Game Totalover 212.5. -105 (5dimes) There you have it, our Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls Prediction for 12/13/2019. Good Luck Cappers!
NFL Week 14 is here and we are back to give you more DraftKings players to consider for your winning lineups. Last week our 6 picks combined for 67.1 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Jack Doyle leading the way with (19.3 DKFP). No more bye weeks thank goodness, just teams trying to get into the playoffs or end the season strong to prove they have what it takes to compete for roster spots next year. Now onto the good stuff…
As usual, let’s start with a game stack we believe has high scoring potential. With an implied total of 46 points, the Miami Dolphins (3-9) vs. New York Jets (4-8) is just the type of matchup we like. The Dolphins are allowing a robust 399.8 total ypg this season (32nd in the league). The Jets defense is below league average surrendering 317.3 total ypg (19th in the league). Never would have thought that I’d be writing about stacking The Dolphins and Jets, but here we go…
Darnold is fresh off a subpar performance in which he threw for 239 yards and no scores (10.46 DKFP) in the Jets eventual 22-6 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Prior to last week’s dud he averaged 279 passing yards and 3 TD’s/GM Weeks 10-12 (26.4 DKFP/GM). This week the Dolphins travel north to New Jersey and offer a remedy for the Jets struggles. Although the Dolphins have strung together a few wins, they’re defense ranks bottom of the league in pass defense DVOA, total yards/GM (399.7), points allowed/GM (31.4) and DKFP/GM allowed to opposing QB’s (23.48).
It’s crazy to think that just two weeks ago Crowder was priced at $6,200. But after a combined four catches for 26 yards during that span, here we are. The silver lining the last two weeks has been the combined 13 targets, so it isn’t as if he isn’t getting any opportunities. In fact, Crowder ranks 14th among WR’s in target share (23.7%) and T-15th in targets/GM (7). He gets a glorious match up this week against a Dolphins defense that is allowing the ninth most passing yards/GM (256.17) and the sixth most DKFP/GM to WR’s (40.42). It’s also worth noting that the last time Crowder was priced at $5,300 was against these same Dolphins in Week 9, where he put up 22.3 DKFP on an 8-83-1 receiving line.
Since Preston Williams got hurt in Week 10, Parker has been the key cog in the Dolphins passing attack, seeing at least 10 targets/GM over the last four weeks. During that span, he has reeled in 25 of 41 targets for 454 yards and 2 TD’s. In fact, Parker is fifth in the league in fantasy points per snap over the last month (0.36) and is seeing a 19.7% target share on the year. The Jets rank 21st against the pass in DVOA and have allowed the tenth most DKFP/GM to opposing WR’s (39.07).
With the savings at WR and TE this week I have plenty of salary left to fit CMC into my lineups. He ranks in the top five among RB’s in snaps/GM (89.7%), rush attempts/GM (18), rushing yards/GM (87), receiving targets/GM (7), receiving yards/GM (53) and red zone opportunities/GM (4.75). This week he gets a match up with an Atlanta Falcons defense that is allowing 108.7 rushing yards/GM and 23.27 DKFP/GM to opposing RB’s. In this same match up three weeks ago, CMC went off for 33.1 DKFP on 70 rushing yards and 11 receptions for 121 yards and there is no reason to think he won’t duplicate those numbers this week. Just pay for CMC this week.
This is a pure GPP pivot off of the chalky Ian Thomas this week. Sprinkle is locked into the starting tight end role with Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis out for the year. While his upside appears to be limited, he did tie his season-high in targets last week (4) and is seeing nearly 80% of his teams snaps each week. The Green Bay Packers have been susceptible to opposing tight ends this year, allowing the third most DKFP/GM (16.05) to the position. I expect the Redskins to be playing from behind in this game, which works in favor of Sprinkle, particularly with all the injuries to the Washington pass catchers.
The Colts travel south to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week to take. Bucs QB Jameis Winston has almost as many interceptions (20) as he does touchdowns (22) this year, and he is always vulnerable to multi-interception games (6 games in 2019 with at least 2 INT, 2 games in 2019 with at least 4 INT). The Colts are an average defense this year, with a 1.33% takeaway rate and a 7.29% sack rate. They also surprisingly rank sixth in yards per play allowed (6.98) in the league. After a massive six sack performance last week against the Tennessee Titans, I expect the Colts defense to keep it going in a big game against the Bucs.
There you go. These will be the core players we will utilize in our Week 14 NFL DraftKings GPP and Cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
