Buffalo Bills 2020 Season Preview
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills finished the 2019 season with a 10-6 record, ultimately blowing a 16-0 lead and falling to the Houston Texans 22-19 in overtime of the Wildcard Round. Nevertheless, Buffalo made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons after a 17-year playoff drought from 2000- 2017. It goes without saying that the “Culture Change” promised by Head Coach Sean McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane has certainly come to fruition. Now, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills 2020 Season Preview.
Departures
DT Jordan Phillips, LB Lorenzo Alexander, DE/OLB Shaq Lawson, RB Frank Gore, CB Kevin Johnson, OG Spencer Long.
Acquisitions
WR Stefon Diggs, LB A.J. Klein, CB Josh Norman, DE Quinton Jefferson, DE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DT Daryl Williams, OG Brian Winters.
Can you DIGG it!
Stefon Diggs has collected 365 Receptions, 4,623 Yds, and 30 TD over a five-year career in Minnesota and is the highlight acquisition for the Bills. Hence, Buffalo traded their 2020 1st round draft pick and a plethora of future late round draft picks for Diggs. Although Diggs is coming off only 63 receptions, it was his second straight thousand yard season. The all-pro did however average an insane 17.9 Yds/Rec last season. Without a doubt adding Diggs to a wide receiver corp already consisting of John Brown (72 receptions resulting in 1060 YDS), and Cole Beasley who contributed (67 receptions good for 778 YDS) in 2019 makes what was considered an average position group for the Bills, now a significant strength on the team.
Kudos to Management
The goal has always been to continue adding weapons for QB Josh Allen. Therefore, after solidifying the offensive line last off season, the front office kept true to their word in obtaining a legit WR1 for their young QB.
Draft Day
The Bills opted to select DE A.J. Epenesa with the No. 54 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. At 6-5, 275 pounds Epenesa should find his way into the defensive line rotation, be it inside or the outside. Next, Buffalo added power RB Zack Moss (Utah) in the third round of the NFL Draft. Moss should work in the goal line/rotational RB role with Devin Singletary. Furthermore, Buffalo selected a couple nice young WRs in Gabriel Davis (UCF) in the 4th round as well as WR Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon State) in the 6th round. Undoubtedly these young, tall, and athletic receivers will be slowly eased into the offense slowly. Other notable draft day selections – QB Jake Fromm (Georgia), K Tyler Bass (Georgia Southern), CB Dane Jackson (Pitt). I believe the Bills drafted well and will see dividends immediately in 2020.
DEFENSE
The Bills front seven will look slightly different this year with the departures of DT Jordan Phillips (Arizona Cardinals), LB Lorenzo Alexander (Retired) and DE/OLB Shaq Lawson (Miami Dolphins). While all three were strictly rotational players, they were responsible for 41% of Buffalo’s sack production in 2019. Nonetheless, that production now falls on free agent signings DE Mario Addison and DT Vernon Butler who respectively combined for 15.5 sacks in 2019. Both have played under Sean McDermott while he was the Defensive Coordinator of the Carolina Panthers (2011-2016). The main question on defense heading into the 2020 season is who will be starting opposite CB Tre’Davious White. Beane and McDermott dipped into their Carolina roots again, signing CB Josh Norman to a one-year deal. At 32 years old. Norman may be past his prime, but he comes into a system that he is very familiar with, having been voted a first team all pro and to the Pro Bowl in 2015 (56 tackles, 4 Int, 2 TD) under Sean McDermott. Norman’s main competition is Levi Wallace who collected 76 tackles and 2 INT in 2019. Wallace showed promise last year but is a young player and was exposed at times by opposing QB’s. As a result, a healthy competition for the starting cornerback role should come out of camp. The rest of the defense is set, with many individuals in their third or fourth year in the McDermott system. Most notably, linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano having combined for 226 tackles and 3 sacks in 2019.
Schedule
Strength of schedule rankings are impacted by offseason events like free agency and the draft. However, things can happen in camp where a star player is suddenly out which can alter strength of schedule. So in our opinion the best way to objectively determine a teams schedule is to look at their opponents’ records from the previous season and factor in draft and key acquisitions. Although it’s not an exact science you can get an idea of how a team might perform over a season. In Buffalo’s case their 2020 opponents record in 2019 was (134-121-1) good for a winning percentage of .525. Thus, Buffalo is tied for the 5th toughest schedule heading into 2020.
The Bills open the season with some very winnable games (Jets, Dolphins, Rams) before finishing 2020 with some very tough games (49ers, Steelers, Broncos). Tom Brady and his 30-3 career record against Buffalo is no longer around to torment the Bills. Therefore, TB12’s departure should clear the way for Buffalo to finally stand a fighting chance against the New England Patriots. Here is how we see Buffalo’s game by game playing out.
Jets – winnable
Dolphins – winnable
Rams – winnable
Raiders – Loss
Titans – Loss
Chiefs – Loss
Jets – winnable
Patriots – winnable
Seattle – winnable
Arizona – winnable
Bye
Chargers – winnable
49ers – Loss
Steelers – Loss
Broncos – Loss
Patriots – winnable
Dolphins – winnable
Wager Prediction
First, I am particularly high on Josh Allen this year on DraftKings. He is the prototypical fantasy stud at QB with his ability to use his legs (1141 rushing Yds, 17 rushing TD’s in only TWO SEASONS!). Especially with the addition of Stefon Diggs, Allen should be primed to build on last years passing stats (3089 Yds, 20 TD, 9 Int). Also, worth noting is the increase in Allen’s completion percentage, which I believe should continue to increase in 2020 (2018-53%, 2019-59%). Second, I like the Bills to win the AFC East at +100. Lastly, Buffalo is capable of picking up wins against the tougher teams on their schedule which we feel will push them over the 9 games most books are hanging. Obviously things can change between now and the start of the season but we will gladly put a Bills Team Total over 9 futures bet in now.
Conclusion
With new offensive weapons, Josh Allen can easily finish as a top 5 in QB rating in 2020. The Bills defense keeps most games close therefore Buffalo wins the AFC East Division title, they’re first since 1995.
Hope you enjoyed our Buffalo Bills 2020 Season Preview.
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