Well, I wrote up Syndergaard versus the White Sox yesterday and he did not disappoint (11 K’s, 1 BB, while only allowing 5 hits) to finish with 34.90 DKP – your welcome if you tailed. Jacob deGrom now gets his turn against Chicago. The White Sox have certainly struggled in 2019, owning the leagues third-worst wOBA vs RHP (.296) and the second-highest strikeout rate vs RHP (26.2%). On the year, deGrom has simply mowed batters down, whiffing 163 in 129 IP. Chicago unsurprisingly has one of the lowest implied run totals on the day with 3.4, and the Mets are currently implied for 4.7 runs as -187 favorites. Give me deGrom today!
Berrios takes the mound against the Miami Marlins who currently are the last-place team in the National League East. The Marlins have been dreadful in 2019 and stats don’t lie. They are the worst team in the majors in wOBA vs RHP (.281), they sadly also own the fifth-highest strikeout rate vs RHP (25.2%) and draw walks at the second-lowest rate vs RHP (6.6%). Berrios last pitched vs the White Sox (who statistically are almost identical to the Marlins) on July 25th allowing 2 ER on six hits and walking only one to go along with 8 Ks over 7 IP, good for a win and 27.6 DKP. Minnesota is the largest favorite on the day (-201) and Miami has the lowest implied run total (3.3 runs). With all this in mind, I like Berrios’ shot at going deep in this game and picking up another win.
Since I plan on paying up at pitcher, the Athletics offer a cheap stack against the Milwaukee Brewers starter Jordan Lyles. Since the all-star break, Oakland has the eighth highest wRC+ (110), the tenth highest wOBA (.333) and the third-highest walk percentage (10.6%) vs RHP. Jordan Lyles has been terrible vs lefties, as his .416 wOBA and 5.23 xFIP within the split suggest just that. Matt Olsen ($4,300) is the first player I want to highlight in the stack. Since the all-star break, he has absolutely crushed RHP with a .374 wOBA and has collected 4 hits in his last 9 at-bats including a HR, 3 RBI and a pair of doubles, suggesting he may be heating up. Khris Davis ($3,300) looks like a great value who is projected to bat fifth today. Davis has struggled since the all-star break, with a .251 wOBA vs RHP. But he is coming off a three-hit game, which included a HR and a double in the A’s extra-inning win yesterday. Lastly, I have considerable interest in Jurickson Profar ($3,400) at second base. Profar sports a .293 wOBA and .474 SLG vs RHP since the all-star break. It may be a small sample size, but he is also 2-3 against Lyles and at his current price, could return his value nicely. If Profar does not start recent Triple-A call up Nick Martini will do just nicely at ($2,800) to finish off the stack.
That rounds out some the picks that will be in our DraftKings MLB rosters for Wednesday, July 31st. Good luck and may your screens be green.
Syndergaard takes the bump against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. He took the loss in his last start versus the Padres on last Wednesday, giving up 3 ER over eight hits, surrendering five walks and ending the night with 8 Ks. Strikeouts have not been the issue (25 Ks in last 21 IP), but what has plagued Syndergaard recently is giving out free passes (9 BB in last 26 IP). He gets a perfect remedy for his current woes as the White Sox have been one of baseballs worst teams offensively. Since July 1st they have the leagues third-highest K/9 vs RHP (27.7%), fourth-lowest BB/9 vs RHP (5.9%) and the second-worst wOBA vs RHP (.272). I really like Syndergaard to bounce back in this spot.
Canning (much like Syndergaard) gets a date with another dismal offense in the Detroit Tigers. In the month of July, Detroit owns the leagues second highest K/9 vs RHP (27.9%), second-lowest BB/9 vs RHP (5.6%) and the third-worst wOBA vs RHP (.279). Canning pitched against the Tigers back on May 7th giving up 2 ER on just 4 hits to go along with one walk with 7 Ks in 5 1/3 innings. The Angles are the largest favorites on the day at -258, and Detroit owns the lowest projected run total with 3.6 runs. Given the matchup and Vegas on his side, Canning should be a popular cash gameplay and I really can’t argue it.
Kyle Freeland COL ($4,400) DISCLAIMER: This is a pure GPP play and is not for the faint of heart.
Freeland and the Rockies take on the Dodgers in Coors Field. That is a frightening statement to back but before you accuse me of going totally mad, let me give you the stats. Since the all-star break, the Dodgers have actually been one of the worst teams in baseball versus LHP. They rank second to last in wOBA (.263) and own the seventh-highest K/9 (25.6%). Freeland is by no means a dominant pitcher as his 62 strikeouts in 73.1 IP is evidence of, but at $4,400 you really don’t need much to hit value. Rostering him also gives you the luxury of paying up for some big bats. If Freeland can go five innings and limit the damage, he could have some sneaky GPP upside on a 14 game slate.
The Nationals get a home matchup versus Julio Teheran and the Braves. Since the all-star break, the Nationals own the fifth-highest wOBA vs RHP (.351) and the second-highest BB/9 vs RHP (11%). They opened the series yesterday with a six-run outing, due mainly in part to an Anthony Rendon grand slam. Teheran has been a serviceable pitcher thus far in 2019, as his 3.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP will indicate. He has done a great job limiting the long ball, only allowing 13 HRs in 118.1 IP. But with a 5.3 run projection along with game time temps in the low to mid 90s, I feel confident in the Nats tonight. First, Anthony Rendon ($4,800) has obliterated RHP in 2019 with .414 wOBA and a 156 wRC+. In his last 9 AB’s he has 5 hits including the aforementioned grand slam for a total of 7 ribbies. Juan Soto ($4,300) owns a .386 wOBA and a 137 wRC+ vs RHP. In his last two games, he has collected 2 hits one which left the yard, 3 RBI’s, 2 BB and a stolen base, subsequently finishing with 16 and 14 DKP respectably. Trae Turner ($4,700) sports a .350 wOBA vs RHP and is batting .389 in 18 career at-bats vs Teheran. Lastly, Brian Dozier ($3,600) has simply been crushing RHP since the all-star break (.438 wOBA, 172 wRC+) and makes for a good value pick to finish off the stack to round out your DrafKings MLB roster plays for Tuesday, July 30th. Good Luck.
Bonus MLB Pick
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost nine consecutive games. The Cincinnati Reds put up 10 runs in the second inning yesterday winning 11-6 against Pittsburgh. The Reds also won their last 2 against the Colorado Rockies before visiting Pittsburgh. Since the all-star break, the Reds are 4th in the league in wOBA (.362) while Pittsburgh pitchers rank 22nd in the league in earned runs allowed (522) in the league. I like Pirate troubles to continue and am comfortably willing to back the Cincinnati Reds -1.5+140 (Heritage)
Detroit sends lefty Daniel Norris (2-8, 5.02 ERA) against fellow lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-7, 5.37 ERA). Both have had their struggles recently. Norris hasn’t recorded a win since May 12th in Minnesota. Kikuchi hasn’t tallied a W since June 23rd against lowly Baltimore.
Norris ERA over the last month has risen from 3.63 to 5.02. Kikuchi, has pitched better than his record says, only giving up 3 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts spanning 27 IP going 1-2 with 2 no-decisions. Plus, this is the first time any of the Tigers have seen Kikiuchi. Advantage pitcher.
Since the All-Star break, Detroit is last in the league in runs scored (43) and 28th in wOBA (.273). The Mariners aren’t breaking any records either coming in at 23rd in the league in runs scored (48) and 23rd in wOBA (.303)
Detroit for the season only averages 3.6 runs per game while Seattle is slightly better averaging 5.0 per game for the 2019 campaign. Importantly the bats are just not there for either team at the moment, along with the unfamiliarity of Kikuchi should be enough to keep runs off the board. Let’s put a play on theUnder 9.5 -105 (Bovada). I also like that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto’s last 6 games at T-Mobile Park.
Aaron Nola takes the mound on the road in Detroit. He will look to bounce back from his previous start vs the Dodgers in which he gave up four earned runs (3 HR), walked three and only struck out five batters. Despite his struggle vs one of the league’s greatest offenses, Nola has still managed a high strikeout rate. In the month of July, he has 28 K’s in 25.2 IP. The Tigers as a team strikeout 26% of the time vs RHP (2nd highest in the league). They are also bottom in the league in wOBA (.290) and wRC+ (78). The Phillies are -156 favorites and are implied for 4.8 runs compared to Detroit’s 3.8 runs. Indicating Nola should be set up for the Win.
Chris Archer takes on the Cardinals for the second start in a row. On July 17, Archer pitched six innings, giving up three earned runs and struck out eight on his way to 19.3 DKP in St. Louis. Now the Pirates and Archer get a rematch, but this time in the confines of the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Archer has been in good form since returning from the All-Star break, as his 18 Ks in his last 12 IP can indicate. Whereas the Cardinals have been the complete opposite. Since June 1st, 2019, St. Louis is last in wRC+ (76), last in wOBA (.286) and a bottom ten team in K/9 (24.6%) vs RHP. It should be noted the Cardinals have been without three of their top bats (Matt Carpenter, Marcel Ozuna, and Yadier Molina) for some time, which nonetheless makes this offense far from potent. Subsequently, Pittsburgh is a -127 favorite and at this moment St. Louis’ run total has dropped from 4.7 to 4.3. At $7,500 and in this matchup, I believe Archer is an excellent value.
I DO NOT BELIEVE IN JASON VARGAS! Let me repeat that, I DO NOT BELIEVE IN JASON VARGAS!! It feels amazing to say that. Regression is a real thing folks, and it will happen. Today seems like a great opportunity for that to happen as the Mets host the Padres. Important to note is that San Diego has the third-highest wOBA (.352) vs LHP since the beginning of June and is projected to roll out eight righties tonight. Of the thirteen home runs Vargas has given up in 2019, ten of them have been hit by righties. Every right-handed bat in the Padres lineup is in play for me. Manny Machado is a staple in the stack, as he has crushed LHP with a .563 wOBA and a 257 wRC+. In his last ten games, he has five HRs and is averaging 10.2 DKP. Manuel Margot is an amazing value batting second at $4,100. He has also mashed LHP with a .480 wOBA and a 203 wRC+. Fernando Tatis Jr. (.440 wOBA, 177 wRC+ vs LHP) and Hunter Renfroe (.418 wOBA, 162 wRC+ vs LHP) also make for solid plays. Well, that wraps up some MLB DraftKings lineup options for Tuesday, July 23rd… Good Luck!
Eight-division champion Manny “Pac Man” Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KOs) and undefeated welterweight world champion Keith “One Time” Thurman (29-0, 22 KOs) headline the main event on Saturday night from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas (FOX PPV 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT).
The two welterweights are at crossroads in their respective careers. The 40-year-old Pacquiao has Hall of Fame credentials and is a shoo-in for enshrinement, while the 30-year-old Thurman is trying to establish his reign in argumentatively boxing’s best weight class with the likes of Errol Spence Jr. and Terence Crawford.
The bout is billed as “Welterweight Supremacy”. Both fighters last fought in January. Pacquiao had an overwhelmingly unanimous decision over Adrien Broner. Meanwhile, Thurman after nearly a 22-month injury-laden layoff defeated Josesito Lopez and shook off ring rust with a majority decision.
At the last press conference, Pacquiao stated, “For me nothing is personal. I have to do my job and there is nothing personal with him. Our job is to fight and he has to prove something, and I have to prove something. That’s why I’m so motivated for this fight and this training camp. It’s also my first time fighting on FOX Sports PPV, so I’m excited to fight on Saturday.”
The Senator from the Philippines is always prepared and motivated. As for his prediction, Pac Man said, “I’m not predicting a knockout for this fight, but we did our best in this training camp. I’m focused and motivated, so we’ll see. I’ll do my best to make the fans happy.”
Keith Thurman has his own expectations for this welterweight title bout. “Manny isn’t going to do anything. With the little ‘T-Rex’ arms. He’s about to get beat up. I get to punch a Senator in the face and he’s going to feel it. If he’s upset about it, he can do something about it Saturday night. It’s called swing, swing, swing baby.”
“One Time” is confident and is making a bold statement. “I’ve been saying it over and over again, don’t be surprised if Manny Pacquiao goes night-night,” said Thurman.
“Pac Man” is the favorite at -160 with “One Time” the underdog at +140 according to the latest Las Vegas odds. My prediction is a highly entertaining fight that will end in a draw and go down as the Fight of the Year. Current odds list a draw as 10-1.
Aguinaldo, a FreeHandicappingWagers.com contributing editor, has also provided coverage for ESPN, PA Sport and STATS LLC. His work has also appeared in Yahoo Sports, USA Today and The Daily News. He can be reached at bernard@aguinaldo.com.
