by Jay | Jun 30, 2019 | MLB
The Texas Rangers (46-37) take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (47-36) at 1:10 ET at Tropicana Field today.
The Rangers will send righty Jesse Chavez (3-2, 2.79 ERA) to the mound against lefty and 2018 CY Young Award winner Blake Snell (4-7, 5.01 ERA)
In Chavez’s last outing, the reliever turned starter pitched 6.1 innings giving up 5 hits, 0 ER and striking out 7 in Detroit to pick up the win. Snell, in contrast, has been roughed up the entire month of June surrendering 30 hits over 17.1 IP, resulting in 23 ER and a robust 11.94 ERA.
With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at the Snell vs. Rangers bats matchup. Ok, never mind that, the sample size just isn’t there against the projected Texas lineup. However, since the start of June three Rangers are hitting over .300 – SS Elvis Andrus (.303), 2B Danny Santana (.312), and OF Delino DeShields (.343). On the season the Rangers are collectively 3rd in the league in BABIP (.315), and 9th in the league in wOBA (142).
Until Blake Snell can prove otherwise it is a mistake to bet on him until further notice. Let’s confidently put a unit on the Rangers 1st 5 innings ML +180 (Heritage)
by Jay | Jun 27, 2019 | MLB |
The Los Angeles Dodgers (55-27) visit the Colorado Rockies (42-38) to open a four-game series starting at 8:40 ET tonight.
The Dodgers send Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA) to face off against Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85 ERA).
Lambert last pitched on June 22nd against these same Dodgers going 5 innings, giving up 3 ER while striking out only 1. He took a no decision in that contest played in Los Angeles. Not great, not terrible, just so-so. Tonight he faces a Dodgers team who collectively are third in the league in wOBA (.341) and third in the league in wRC+ (98). The sample size of Dodger career at-bats is too small to mention but what is worth mentioning is hitter-friendly Coors Field. Since June of this year, 10 games have been played at Coors averaging 15 runs per game! Seriously, that is happening! Also, Lambert is 1-0 at Coors this season having pitched 8 innings giving up 9 ER for a robust 10.13 ERA. After Lambert is out, the Dodgers get a look at the Rockie’s bullpen which is 28th in the league with a K/9 rate of 8.31.
I believe that the inexperienced pitcher against a productive Dodger lineup in a hitter-friendly environment is too much to ignore. I’ll definitely take the Dodgers Team Total over 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
by Tommy | Jun 25, 2019 | DFS |
Top STUD Pitcher- Max Scherzer WSH ($12,400)
Scherzer is the highest priced pitcher on today’s DraftKings main slate. With Gerrit Cole sitting $900 cheaper in a “revenge” spot versus the Pirates, Scherzer may come with lower ownership. We all know he has had some issues pitching vs. the Marlins in 2019 (11.1 IP, 18 HA, 7 ER), but he only gave up 1 HR, 1 BB and had a whopping 15 K’s during those 11.1 innings. This may indicate Scherzer has had some bad luck against Miami this year. The Marlins in 2019 have been one of the worst teams in the league vs. RHP (.284 wOBA, 24.8% K rate, 7% BB rate). Scherzer as a -236 favorite, has an incredible ceiling against a Marlins team implied for a slate low 2.7 runs
Top VALUE Pitcher- Jack Flaherty STL ($7,900)
Flaherty takes the mound at home vs. the A’s tonight. All you need to know is Flaherty is pitching in ST. LOUIS. That’s it, end segment… Okay, so I am obligated to give you some numbers. At home Flaherty’s stats are as follows, 47 IP, 53 K’s, 2.49 ERA and 19.2 FPPG as opposed to 33.2 IP, 36 K’s, 6.68 ERA and 6.8 FPPG on the road. Oakland is an average offense vs. RHP (.310 wOBA, 20.8% K rate, 9% BB rate) and is implied for the fifth lowest run total on the day with 4 runs. Another thing in Flaherty’s favor is his dominance vs. right-handed bats (.273 wOBA, 57 K’s in 44.2 IP) and Oakland is projected to roll out 7 righties tonight. The Cardinals are -144 favorites and implied for 5 runs, so I also like Flaherty’s shot at a Win.
Top STACK- YANKEES
Yes I know the Yanks should be popular tonight, but I don’t care. They are implied to score an insane 7.8 runs at home vs. lefty Clayton Richard. New York has been on fire this last week, averaging 7.57 runs per game. While Richard has been cold as ice, allowing 16 runs in his last 12 2/3 innings and sporting a 7.64 ERA in 2019. Every single Yankee is in play, but I will try to narrow it down. Giancarlo Stanton at $4,600 finally hit his first deep ball last night, is 3-3 with 1 HR and 3 RBI’s off of Richard and is known as a leftie masher. Gary Sanchez is an expensive Catcher option at $5,600 but has mashed LHP in 2019 with a .405 wOBA and a 156 wRC+. Luke Voit (.340 wOBA vs LHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (.363 wOBA vs LHP) are both great options at 1B to close out the stack.
Bonus MLB Pick
The Yankees beat the Blue Jays last night 10-8. The Yanks gave up 6 in the last 2 innings to make the score seem closer than it was. The Yankees have now homered in 27 straight. Aaron Hicks after the game: “It’s kind of what we do, we hit home runs here, that’s kind of how we score runs. We’re in a great spot right now. We’re scoring runs. We’re doing it as a team, which is huge. Top to bottom is doing damage and that’s what we need.” There will be no let up tonight against Clayton Richard. Let’s stay with the hot hand to cash the run line tonight: New York Yankees -1.5 -145 (5dimes)
by Jay | Jun 23, 2019 | WNBA
The Connecticut Sun (9-1) face off against the Chicago Sky (5-3) at 6:00 ET tonight at the Wintrust Arena in Chicago.
The Sun will be looking for their 8th straight win while the Sky come off a tough 76-69 defeat at home by the Indiana Fever yesterday. The Sky made a late charge having been down by 20 in the second half before coming up just short.
The Sun’s Jonquel Jones is in MVP candidate form leading the league in rebounds (11.6) and blocks (2.6) per game. Jones is also averaging 17.3 PPG, good for 4th in the league. Sun guard Shekinna Stricklen leads the league in 3 point shots made per game with 3.2. It’s no wonder the Sun are 3rd in the league in scoring with 81 PPG.
The Sky currently average 78.6 PPG good for 6th in the league, while allowing 80 PPG to their opponents. Sky guard Courtney Vandersloot currently leads the league in assists per game with 8.0 but Jones and company are playing just too good of late to be denied today. I’ll take my chances with the Sun to cover on the road. Connecticut Sun -4.5 -101 (BookMaker)
by Tommy | Jun 20, 2019 | DFS
Top STUD Pitcher- Jake Odorizzi MIN ($10,800)
I want to start out by saying I do not love any of the high-end pitchers, but if I must choose one I will take Odorizzi. He has pitched very well this year with a 10-2 record, 2.24 ERA and 85 K’s. Odorizzi just pitched vs the Royals, going 6 innings with 4 ER and 7 K’s. This was the first time he had allowed four runs since April 5th. Kansas City is a below average offense in 2019 (.310 wOBA vs RHP). They also strike out 24.6% of the time in the same split (9th worst in MLB). Odorizzi should rack up the K’s in this matchup (10 K/9 in 2019) and Minnesota is a heavy -201 road favorite setting him up for the win. It doesn’t hurt that Kansas City is also implied for a measly 3.9 runs.
Top VALUE Pitcher- Tyler Chatwood CHC ($4600)
Chatwood gets the spot start at home vs the Mets. On the year he is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 29 K’s in 35 IP. Chatwood’s still has an issue with walks as he walks batters 14.2% of the time. But the Mets as a team do not draw many walks with an 8.3% BB rate (20th in MLB), indicating that Chatwood’s main Achilles heal may not be exposed. Chatwood has mainly been used out of the bullpen in 2019, but when given a chance to eat up innings he has done well. He has three games in which he pitched at least four innings, April 21st vs ARI (6 shut out innings, 2 hits, 3 K’s, 2 BB), May 11th vs MIL (4 shut out innings, 0 hits, 7 K’s, 3 BB) and May 22nd vs PHI (4 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 3 K’s, 1 BB). For those of you who don’t want to do that math, this equates to 14 IP, 1 ER, 13 K’s, 5 hits, 6 BB. Not bad, not fantastic, but at $4600 vs the middling Mets team (.303 wOBA vs RHP) I’ll take a shot. The Cubs opened as -135 favorites, but have jumped to -153 throughout the day. If Chatwood can go at least five innings he should be set up for a win.
Top STACK- BREWERS
The Brewers are implied for 5.5 runs at home vs Tanner Roark and the Reds. In Roark’s last 18 innings pitched he has given up 10 earned runs (5.00 ERA). Needless to say, he may again have his hands full with a Milwaukee team sporting a .329 wOBA vs RHP in 2019. The main staple in the stack would, of course, be Christian Yelich who owns an insane .491 wOBA and a 207 wRC+ vs RHP on the year. Mike Moustakas also hits RHP very well with a .389 wOBA and 140 wRC+. Yasmani Grandal fills a need at catcher and also has a respectable .370 wOBA and 128 wRC+ vs RHP. I really like the Lefties in this stack as Roark has allowed a .381 wOBA and .484 SLG vs LHB in 2019.
Bonus MLB play
Minnesota is in a great situation tonight. Better pitching, better hitting, plus the Twins are 5-1 SU in their last 6 against The Royals. The ML has been pushed up to around -200 at some books but the RL looks cashable. Let’s go ahead and place some action on Twins -1.5 -108 (5dimes)
