There is a value pitcher and team stack tonight on DraftKings that is just too good to pass up. So before you set your lineups, read on and see who our resident Draftkings contributor Tommy will have in his GPP and Cash lineups tonight.
Lucas Giolito, White Sox ($7,800)
image courtesy nytimes
Giolito is coming off one of his best starts of the season, posting 26.5 DKP on July 3rd against the San Francisco Giants. In that game, he gave up one earned run over six innings pitched and finished the day with six strikeouts. Today he faces off with a Detroit Tigers team which he faced in his first start in early April. In that start, he pitched only four innings, striking out six and allowing no runs, finishing with a respectable 19.2 DKP. Detroit ranks in the league’s bottom half with a 24% K rate and a .268 wOBA versus right-hand pitching this season. I believe at his current cheap price of $7,800 and no longer under a pitch count that Giolito is an absolute steal in all formats. He makes for a great building block today on DraftKings.
The Yankees are slated to go up against Connor Seabold today in Boston. Seabold pitched only 8.2 innings in the big leagues this season, allowing eight earned runs and a whopping three home runs. We all know the Bronx Bombers’ power, evidenced by their .331 wOBA, .190 ISO, and 117 wRC+ versus right-hand pitching this season. Players such as Aaron Judge (.434 wOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.370 wOBA), Giancarlo Stanton (.361 wOBA), and DJ LeMahieu (.324 wOBA) make for an excellent stack against Seabold, who still has a lot left to prove in the majors.
MLB is back! Here at FHW we are excited to bring you our free picks and analysis as we head into this 2020 season. So many questions arise as we head into a season unlike any other. No fans, a condensed schedule of 60 games, designated hitters for both leagues (which I am thrilled about) and of course the aura of Covid-19 in the clubhouse. Let’s not dwell on the pandemic too much, we have had enough of that over the past 4 months, let’s try to focus on the matchups, the stats, the lineups… you know, all the things that we love as sports handicappers. The Chicago Cubs will kick off their first of three weekend home games against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field at 7:10 EST in each team’s season opener.
Lines
CHI -120 -1.5 +160 Over 8.5 Under 8.5
MIL +115 +1.5 -178 -115 +104
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Manager Craig Counsell will give the starting nod to Brandon Woodruff in the season opener. The 27-year old right-hander was able to collect a 3.62 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP and an 11-3 record in 22 starts last season. Woodruff faced the Cubs once last season pitching 4 innings giving up 4 ER with 8K’s. Woodruff has experienced trouble against the Cubs’ having surrendered 11 runs on 17 hits in his 14 career innings pitched against Chicago
Notable is the fact that Woodruff was one of the best in the majors at keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 0.89 home runs per nine frames, 10th among players with at least 100 innings pitched.
The Brewers offense revolves around star Christian Yelich. The 28-year old right fielder compiled a .329 average with 44 HR and 97 RBI’s in 2019. Yelich has had much success against the Cubs. He recorded a .315 average with five homers and a solid 16 RBI’s in 73 at-bats against Chicago last season. Yelich has 6 hits and 1 HR against Hendricks in 24 career at-bats.
CHICAGO CUBS
The Cubs will send 30-year old RHP Kyle Hendricks to the mound, although his ERA has dipped in three straight seasons. The six-year veteran tallied a 3.46 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP which led to an 11-10 record in 177 innings last year in 30 starts. Hendricks allowed four runs in nine innings against Milwaukee last season and owns a superb 3.08 ERA in his 21 career starts against the Brew Crew posting a record of 8-6 over his career.
Hendricks was much better at Wrigley last season as he posted an impressive 2.04 ERA over 14 starts going 6-2 against a 5.02 ERA in 16 road outings good for a record of 5 wins to 8 losses.
Career Record 63 – 43
General Manager Theo Epstein opted to bring in former Cubs’ catcher David Ross to take over for Joe Maddon who departed to coach the Los Angeles Angels. Ross most notably was on the Cubs squad that won the World Series in 2016 and the rookie manager will certainly have some very familiar faces in the clubhouse.
The Cubs had a rather quiet offseason considering they did not reach the postseason after struggling in the month of September which ultimately led to Maddon’s removal. The Cubs’ lineup still remains very dangerous with World Series holdovers 3B Kris Bryant, 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF/C Kyle Schwarber and OF Javier Baez. The Cubs scored an average of 5.02 runs per game in 2019, good for 10th overall.
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Conclusion
The Brewers went 10-9 against the Cubs last season but are just 2-6 in their last 8 at Wrigley Field which leads me to give the edge to Chicago to win outright in David Ross’ managerial debut. Let’s put a wager on Chicago Cubs -120 to take the season opener against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Washington Nationals (93-69) stay on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series tonight from Busch Stadium at 8:08 ET.
WASHINGTON will send righty Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 1.80 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Sanchez started Game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers and held them to only one run scattering four hits over five innings with nine strikeouts. The Dodgers would go on to win the game 10-4 but the damage came after Sanchez departed. Sanchez concluded the 2019 campaign 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
ST. LOUIS will counter with right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.50 ERA). The 31-year-old veteran saw action against the Atlanta Braves so far this postseason allowing 1 ER on 3 hits in 6 innings of work. He finished the season with a 4.16 ERA to go along with a 1.22 WHIP and 9-14 record this season.
RELIEVERS. During the regular season, the Nationals’ bullpen was the worst in baseball with a 5.66 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bullpen ERA was 3.82, good for fifth in the majors. St. Louis won the regular-season series 5-2 and held the Nationals to fewer than 2.5 runs per game. The Cards will also have home-field advantage in this series.
BASERUNNING. The Nats led the National League with 116 steals on the season. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has long been one of the best in the biz at cutting down opposing base-runners having thrown out 40% of attempted baserunners over his 16-year career.
HITTING. Both teams have proven in their first rounds they can hit and hit in the clutch. I’d give a slight edge to the Nats at the moment but this is the playoffs and anything can happen. Let’s take a look at how they finished the season in key hitting stats in the NL.
Runs
Doubles
HRs
AVG.
OBP
SLG
St. Louis
10th
13th
12th
11th
9th
12th
Washington
2nd
6th
6th
1st
1st
3rd
SUMMARY. The Cardinals put together an excellent pitching plan against the Braves and have the arms to cool the Nationals’ hot bats. Plus the Cardinals are superior in the bullpen and possess a defense that didn’t make more than 2 errors in a game all season. The cards will face Max Scherzer followed by Stephen Strasburg then Patrick Corbin in games 2-4 making this game there best opportunity to secure a win. I don’t know if the Cardinals will win the series but I’ll gladly take my chances on them in Game 1 to pick up the win. Let’s go with St. Louis Moneyline -115 (5dimes). Good luck cappers enjoy the MLB postseason. More free plays to come!
The NL wild-card game features the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 pm ET and will be played at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C with the winner of this do-or-die game to get the 106-win Dodgers in the NLDS.
The Brew Crew will send righty Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) to the mound and will be opposed by Nationals righty Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA). Both pitchers have been effective this year as their stats clearly show.
WOODRUFF (R)
SCHERZER (R)
22
Games
27
11-3
Win-Loss
11-7
3.62
ERA
2.92
121.7
Innings
172.3
5.5
Innings Per Game
6.4
1.142
WHIP
1.027
109
Hits
144
5.0
Hits Per Game
5.3
49
Runs
59
2.2
Runs Per Game
2.2
30
Walks
33
143
Strikeouts
243
The Milwaukee Brewers had a chance at the National League Central division title but after getting swept in a three-game series in Colorado, they will have to settle for the wildcard as the St. Louis Cardinals took the NL Central crown. The Washington Nationals are red hot having won 8 in a row to close out the season.
Starting lineups against the opposing pitchers.
The Brewers have not faired well against Scherzer. This is a bad sign for a team that is playing below their average to end the season.
Any sign of trouble and both pitchers are out in an all hands on deck game. I just don’t see a lot of runs tonight and will start out the MLB postseason with a Total UNDER Buying ½ Pts 8 (-125) (Heritage). Good luck cappers!
The Minnesota Twins (84-52) take on the Detroit Tigers (40-94) at 1:10 ET in the final game of this four-game series.
Minnesota will send righty Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.55 ERA) to face off against Detroit right-hander Jordan Zimmerman (1-9, 6.24 ERA).
Odorizzi picked up a victory in his last start on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox allowing two runs on five hits in six innings of work and has now won three of his past four decisions. The 29-year-old has pitched well against the Tigers, going 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts and is an impressive 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four career outings at Comerica Park.
In his last start, Zimmermann allowed just two runs over six innings but did not factor into the decision in Wednesday’s 4-2 loss to the Cleveland Indians. Since returning from the IL with a right cervical spasm Zimmermann has allowed a combined four runs and nine hits in 16 innings in three starts. However, he only has a loss and two no-decisions to show for his efforts. Jordan has faced Minnesota 10 times in his career, posting a 4-5 record and 6.89 ERA.
Minnesota has the bullpen advantage having allowed just 245 runs (1.8 per game) on the season compared to Detroit’s pen which has given up 322 total runs (2.4 per game) during the 2019 campaign so far.
The Twins have scored 28 total runs in the first three games of this series and will look to continue their remarkable hitting to close out the series. Since the all-star break the Twins are second in the majors in runs scored (301), fifth in wOBA (.357) and third in wRC+ (121). The following Twins are all expected to play and have been swinging hot bats in the series.
Minnesota has won seven of their last eight and now lead the AL Central by 5.5 games over Cleveland. I feel confident they will continue their winning ways and will gladly take them on the run line, Let’s go with a Minnesota vs. Detroit Prediction for Monday, September 2 with Minnesota -1.5 -130 (5dimes) for today’s free play. Happy Labor Day Cappers.
The Reds will send righty Luis Castillo (12-5, 3.04 ERA) to the mound against Marlins lefty Caleb Smith (8-7, 3.82 ERA). Castillo has already set career highs in wins and strikeouts pitching 154 innings so far with 179 Ks. Over his last 5 starts Castillo has given up 15 earned runs but 8 were against St. Louis on August 16th. Castillo is 4-1 on the road this season with an impressive 12.4 K/9 per game away from home. Smith, on the other hand, over his last 5 starts has given up 17 earned runs over just 27 2/3 inning pitched and only 9 Ks. In that time his ERA has jumped from 3.43 to 3.82. Caleb is a respectable 6-2 at home totaling 57 innings and sporting a 1.07 WHIP.
More than the advantage of Castillo on the mound for Cincinnati is their bats. Since the all-star break, the Reds are 1st in BABIP (.331), 6th in wOBA (.345) and 8th in both runs (218) and RBIs (210). Absent since August 14 with a back injury, All-Star First baseman Joey Votto returns to the lineup tonight, and will bring his .450 road slugging percentage with him. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez who has homered in back to back games along with outfield phenom Aristides Aquino who has an impressive .338 average to go along with 12 HRs in only 71 at-bats will accompany Votto in the two through four spots in tonight’s lineup.
I like the Reds to keep the hot bats in this contest. Let’s confidently place a wager on Cincinnati -1.5 +125 (Intertops) for tonight’s free play. Good luck cappers.
