NFL Week 4 is here and Tommy is back to offer some insight into his DraftKings roster plays for Sunday’s 1:00 and 4:00 main slate games. Let’s break it down and find players to make you some money on DraftKings or your player prop bets today.
Top Game Stack – Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The battle of the birds ensues as the Seattle Seahawks (2-1) fly south to take on the Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1) in an NFC West divisional showdown. As of this writing the Cardinals (+5) are home dogs with an implied game total set at 48 points. It’s no secret that Arizona wants to run fast in 2019, as they average 24.6 seconds per snap (fastest in the NFL). And while Kyler Murray is fantasy relevant, it has been the opposing quarterbacks who have reaped in the most rewards of Arizona’s fast-paced play. Through the first three weeks opposing quarterbacks are averaging 30.3 DKFP against the Cardinals.
Wilson lit it up last week, throwing for 406 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 51 yards and another two scores in a 33-27 loss to the New Orleans Saints. He now gets a match up with a Cardinal defense that ranks 31st in DKP allowed to QB’s and just let Kyle Allen, in his 2nd career start throw for 260 yards and four scores. I really like the price on DANGER-Russ this week, especially against a defense that has allowed 0.67 fantasy points per pass attempt (3rd most) and a cornerback group who has allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns (4 TD’s) in 2019. With Chris Carson‘s fumbling issues and the health of other running backs on the roster in jeopardy (particularly Rashaad Penny), this should be a game where Pete Carroll just allows Wilson to take over.
Lockett has clearly been Wilson’s favorite target in the passing game in 2019. All the man has done is haul in 22 of 28 targets for 277 yards (92 YDS/G), score two touchdowns, average 21.6 DKP per game, average 9.3 targets per game, rank 9th in air yards and hold a sizable 28% share of Seattle’s targets in 2019! If Russell Wilson is going to do damage in this game, surely Lockett will be the main beneficiary. It is worth noting that in his last ten games against Arizona he had 18 receptions on 24 targets for 254 yards and one touchdown, but those all came while he was playing second fiddle to Doug Baldwin. With Baldwin now out of the picture (retirement), Lockett is set up to explode in this spot!
While Kirk still has not found the end zone in 2019, it is not from a lack of opportunities. He has seen a combined 32 targets in three weeks, averaging 10.6 targets a game, and also received a rushing attempt for twelve yards in week one. Kirk has certainly proven to be one of Murray’s go-to receivers, as he owns 24.6% of the passing targets and has caught 20 balls for 205 yards in 2019. Arizona passes the ball 68% of the time in neutral game scripts, so I expect Kirk to be involved early and often and at $5,100 the upside is surely there.
CMC is simply way too cheap this week. Despite scoring 45.9 DKP in week one and 30.8 DKFP last week, he is still somehow under $9,000 on DraftKings. It’s obvious that the offense will continue to funnel through McCaffery with Cam Newton (foot) still out. In week three McCaffery accounted for 27 total offensive touches, three of which were receptions, for 188 total yards and a score. In fact, McCaffery is the only non-quarterback with 100% of his team’s snaps. On the year he is averaging 150+ scrimmage yards per game and 26.7 opportunities per game. The match up with the Houston Texans is no cakewalk, as they just held Austin Ekeler to 81 total yards. Houston did allow a combined 251 rushing yards to start the season.
This may be the week the Lions finally unleash Kerryon Johnson. In his first game without C.J. Anderson (released), Johnson owned 80% of the RB touches, had a career-high 20 carries, saw a season-high 77% snaps, ran 18 passing routes and saw 6/6 RedZone snaps against the Philadelphia Eagles. He now gets a much better matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is allowing 6.3 yards per carry and a massive 63% rush success rate, both of which are dead last in the NFL. This game projects to be high scoring, with a total set at 54 points. At $5,400, and implied to receive the bulk of the backfield work, Kerryon Johnson makes for an excellent value play.
Waller has quickly become a focal point of the Oakland Raiders offense as he has seen at least seven targets in each game through the first three weeks. He exploded for 30.1 DKP (13 REC, 134 yards) last week against the Minnesota Vikings, and now gets a much easier match up with the Indianapolis Colts. Last week the Colts allowed Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper to catch six of seven targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns, good for 24.6 DKP. Waller owns a 30% market share of the Raiders offense and is the only tight end besides Zack Ertz to run routes on 80%+ of his quarterback’s dropbacks. The Colts also lost starting safety Malik Hooker last week to a knee injury, which could leave the middle of the field open, benefiting Waller even more in this game.
The New England Patriots (3-0) will travel to Buffalo (3-0) for a classic AFC East divisional battle. I like the Bills’ defense this week for almost the bare minimum price. Although Tom Brady has had Buffalo’s number in his career (30-3), Head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier have proven to give him some issues the last two years. In his last four games against the Bills, Brady’s stats are as follows, 84 completions on 127 attempts (66%) for 932 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. He was also sacked eight times in those four games and averaged just 12.4 DKP. The Bills defense is averaging two sacks and two turnovers a game in 2019, and while I don’t expect them to replicate what the New York Jets did against New England last week (16 DKP), I do feel there is some upside in this spot.
All of these players will be heavily represented in our Week 4 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
IBF Welterweight World Champion Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr. (25-0, 21 KOs) and WBC Welterweight Champion Shawn “Showtime” Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs) headline the main event this Saturday, September 28 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles (FOX Sports PBC PPV 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT)
Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr. is the heavy favorite while Shawn “Showtime” Porter tries to overcome his underdog status. Let’s take a closer look at these two welterweights.
Shawn Porter
Tale of The Tape
Errol Spence Jr.
29
Wins
24
2
Lost
0
17
KOs
21
1
Draws
0
32
Total Bouts
24
53%
KO%
88%
5’7″
Height
5’10”
69″
Reach
72″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Akron, Ohio, USA
Nationality
Desoto, Texas, USA
October 27th, 1987
Date of Birth
January 13th, 1990
The 29-year old, Spence is undefeated and is one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world. He first won the IBF belt with an 11th-round stoppage over Kell Brook in May 2017. Spence has 2 1/2 inches of height and three inches of a reach advantage on Porter. At the last press conference, Spence stated:
“This is going to be an amazing event come Saturday night. I will be the unified champion of the world. Shawn comes to fight and I embrace that. I can’t wait because I promise this is going to be one for the history books.”
Spence has worked and trained hard for this bout. He has high expectations and expects to dominate.
“I just have to do what I’ve been doing. I don’t care about the rounds as long as it doesn’t go 12. I’m going to win and do it in dominating fashion.”
Furthermore, the southpaw doesn’t think the bout will go the distance.
“It’s important to me to get the knockout. It’s a goal of mine to stop him and I hope to get it done. If can’t get it done, then I’m just going to be comfortable with the victory. But you know I’m looking for the stoppage.”
Porter has grit and determination on his side and is known for his aggressive pressure fighting style, physical strength, and high work rate. He has long been used to being the shorter man in the ring. Coming in as a major underdog, the 31-year old, Porter is 4-1 in his last five bouts with that lone loss coming by the hands of Keith Thurman in a unanimous 12 round decision back in 2016.
“Being in the underdog position is literally where I come from. Northeast Ohio is always an underdog. Everybody works where I come from. We always do the best we can.”
Porter has high expectations for this fight and is tired of hearing about comparisons and styles. He’s confident and composed.
“The resume is for everyone else to compare and contrast. For me, it’s all about who’s in front of me. I believe I have the right recipe to be the person to get the job done Saturday. I have the style to challenge him physically and mentally.”
With such a high profile bout to take place this Saturday, some of today’s top boxers and legends weighed in:
“Spence by 12. It’s going to be a good fight, a close fight, but I think Spence will win. It’s not gonna be one-sided fight, it’s gonna be a competitive fight. The fans will be treated to a once-in-a-lifetime experience in this fight.”
“Errol Spence and Shawn Porter is a clash of styles that makes for an exciting, high-profile unification fight. Errol’s trying to be ruler of the division with a statement win, so I expect him to come out and perform. Shawn’s going to come for the full 12 rounds, no matter what. Errol’s never fought anyone like that, which makes this so intriguing. But I see Errol as being the best in the division, hands down, and I’m picking him by unanimous decision. I don’t see him knocking Shawn out.”
“I’ve trained-practically grown up-with Shawn Porter, who has a difficult style. Errol Spence is a great fighter and Shawn’s the underdog, but I was the underdog against Anthony Joshua and we all know what happened there. Shawn’s probably gonna have to be rough in there and stay on the inside, but I expect him to do it and win a decision.”
“Errol Spence and Shawn Porter are both excellent fighters, but I think Spence has the better skills and he’s undefeated, so I’m leaning toward him. Porter can bring it, but Spence is the smarter, more accurate puncher. I see Spence landing more combinations and beating Porter by a majority decision.”
“First of all, both fighters are good and each will be great one day. Styles make the difference, and it will be a great battle if both fighters perform like they usually do. But I’ve got Spence by majority decision.”
The Truth is the favorite at -950 with Showtime the underdog at +575 according to the latest Las Vegas odds. My prediction is that it will go the distance and to the scorecards with a unanimous decision for Spence.
The Buffalo Bills (2-0) head into their home opener 2-0 for the first time in franchise history on Sunday when they host the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at 1:00 p.m. at New Era Field.
The Bills are 6-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is currently set at 44 points.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills have defeated the New York Jets and New York Giants to start the 2019 season. Allen has thrown for over 250 yards and has a 60 percent completion rate in both wins. Allen has also rushed for 59 yards and 2 TDs. The young QB has 2 new weapons in wideouts John Brown and Cole Beasley, who’ve been targeted a combined 31 times in the first two games. Brown and Beasley have 23 total receptions for 318 yards and a touchdown on the year. The Bills will be without leading rusher rookie Devin Singletary, after suffering a hamstring injury against the Giants. With Singletary out, the Bills will turn to the ageless veteran Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon who averaged 4.0 yards per carry and caught 55 balls for 487 yards and four touchdowns in Jacksonville last year.
Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton has been impressive over his first two games of the 2019 campaign. The Red Rocket, even without all-pro WR A.J Green (ankle injury), has 729 passing yards with 4 TDs and only 1 interception. I expect him to keep airing it out against Buffalo today as the Bengals have only managed a total of 59 rushing yards through two games, even with the talented Joe Mixon, the Bengals are averaging just 1.8 yards per carry. The lack of a running game has led to Dalton being sacked nine times in just two games.
Prediction. The Bills offense should be able to move the ball and score some points against a defense that gave up 571 total yards to Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers last week. The Bills have been great at preventing the big plays and will need to keep that trend going today. Another key will be Buffalo’s pass rush working against a banged-up and inefficient Bengals offensive line. I expect Dalton to be pressured and take a few sacks today, especially if the Bengals running game stays stuck in the mud. I’ll gladly take the Buffalo Bills -6 to cover the spread in their home opener. Good luck Cappers!
Added Bonus – some of our NFL Picks Week 3
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Total OVER 54
New York Giants Moneyline
Atlanta Falcons Moneyline
Oakland Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings Total UNDER 43
NFL Week 3 is here and Tommy is back to offer some insight into his DraftKings roster plays for Sunday’s 1:00 and 4:00 main slate games. Let’s break it down and find players to make you some money on DraftKings or your player prop bets this Sunday.
Top Game Stack – Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Detroit Lions (1-0-1) travel east to face off against the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) for an NFC showdown. This seems like a good spot for the Lions (+6) to take advantage of a decimated Eagles team with a plethora of injuries at cornerback and wide receiver. With a projected total of 45.5 and banged up Eagles team, I like Detroit to keep this game close if not win outright. Let’s get to the picks!
Stafford is finally healthy and has shown us his ceiling in 2019, throwing for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals en route to 31.6 DKP. He now gets a match up with an Eagles defense that has given up 398 passing yards to Case Keenum to open the season followed by allowing 367 passing yards to Matt Ryan last week. In fact, Philadelphia appears to be a great pass defense to target, ranking 23rd in DVOA (defense – adjusted value over average) against the pass. As long as Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense can put up some points at home, I like Stafford’s chance of airing it out and hitting another ceiling game this week.
Golladay’s DraftKings price didn’t budge after his stellar week two performance against the Los Angeles Chargers (8 REC, 117 yards, 1 TD). Honestly, he is still way too cheap at $6,600, considering he has 12 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns through two weeks and is clearly Detroit’s number one option in the passing game (19 targets through two weeks). The Eagles currently rank 2nd in DVOA against the run. I think the Lions plan this week will be to throw, throw, and throw some more against this Eagles secondary. I expect Golladay to be fed targets and the main beneficiary of a pass-happy attack.
While the value of Nelson Agholor ($3,600), J.J. Arcega-Whiteside ($3,500) and Mack Hollins ($3,200) make for great plays in cash games, I want to run this stack with Wentz’ golden boy Zach Ertz. While he has yet to find the end zone in 2019, Ertz has been peppered with 23 total targets in the first two weeks. The Lions rank 6th in DKP given up to tight ends, but that was against the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams, who don’t possess a tight end with nearly the same talent as Ertz. With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson banged up, Ertz should see even more targets this week with a high probability of finally finding pay dirt.
With Cam Newton expected to sit out this week, I anticipate McCaffery to take on an even larger role (if that is even possible) against the Cardinals. Thus far in 2019, McCaffery has displayed an enormous ceiling, with 45.9 DKP week 1 against the Rams. Although he was shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 2, I will chalk that up as an anomaly against a division opponent, on a Thursday night. The Bucs are surprisingly 1st in the league in DVOA against the run, while the Cardinals defense ranks 31st versus running backs. Both the Cardinals and Panthers like to run up-tempo offenses (combined average of 28 seconds per play), therefore I expect a lot of plays run in this game. Kyler Murray and the “Arizona Air Raid” should put up plenty of points at home, meaning McCaffery should be heavily involved all game.
Top Sleeper – O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,800)
Yes, I played Howard in week 2, and yes I was not pleased that he saw zero targets and finished with a goose egg on DraftKings, but hear me out. The fact of the matter is, Howard has been on the field for 86% of the snaps in 2019, so the volume is there. He now gets a match up with a New York Giants defense who has been shredded through the air in 2019 and more notably has surrendered 80 yards and 2 TDs to tight ends in the first two games of the season. At $3,800 and in a plus matchup, Howard has a real chance to break the slate on Sunday.
I rarely ever spend up on defense, as it is impossible to predict defensive touchdowns, but I really like the price tag on the Saints this week as they travel to face off against the Seattle Seahawks. In two games this year Russell Wilson has already been sacked a total of nine times. Coincidently, the Saints defense has a total of nine sacks through the first two games in 2019. Pressure on the quarterback is the closest indicator to predicting turnovers, without a doubt the Saints should get in Wilson’s face all day, therefore having massive upside at $2,200.
All of these players will be heavily represented in our Week 3 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
The Dallas Cowboys (1-0) travel to face off against divisional rival Washington Redskins (0-1) at 1:00 EST from FedEx Field for the Skins home opener.
In week 1 the Cowboys laid a beat down on the New York Giants 35-17. QB Dak Prescott spread the ball around with 7 different Cowboys receiving completions including Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper each going over 100+ yards. Dak finished an impressive 25 of 32 completed passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns. Prescott now has an innovative Offensive Coordinator in Kellen Moore and played like an entirely different QB in the 2019 season opener. Preseason holdout RB Ezekiel Elliott now has a week under his belt with the starters and will look to build on his week 1 performance of 53 yards on 13 rushes with 1 reception against a Washington defense that allowed 436 total yards to the Philadelphia Eagles in week 1.
Washington was a 10 point dog to the Eagles in week 1 and for the start of the game looked like they might be able to come away with a win but faltered late to get the cover but not the win. The Redskins had eight offensive penalties last week (five holding, two false starts and a delay of game) and punted on five of their last seven possessions. QB Case Keenum impressed completing 30 of 44 passes for 380 yards and 3 TDs. The running game, however? Not so much. Derrius Guice and Chris Thompson went a combined 28 yards on 13 carries and no TDs. The Skins will be without Guice this week and will turn to veteran Adrian Peterson to pick up the slack. Washington will be without defensive end Jonathan Allen which should allow Dak more time in the pocket. The Skins will also be without left tackle Trent Williams who continues to holdout.
Let me pose this question: Who would you rather have at QB, Dak Prescott or Case Keenum? Who would you rather have in the backfield, Zeke of AP/Chris Thompson? Who would you rather have as your WR threats, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup or Terry McLaurin and Trey Quinn? My point exactly!
The line opened with the Cowboys -7 but has moved lower for some strange reason which we will gladly take. As an added fun fact, since 2014 Jason Garrett and Jay Gruden have faced off 10 times against each other. Garrett has outcoached Gruden to the tune of seven wins to Gruden’s three. We will happily take Dallas -5.5 (Heritage) against the Skins in week 2. Good luck Cappers!
