Happy Thanksgiving Cappers. While you’re chowing down on turkey, stuffing, desserts and all your favorite trimmings lets not forget what really matters… FOOTBALL! Let’s breakdown the 3 NFL games for your turkey day bets and try to stuff your wallets along with your bellies
The Chicago Bears(5-6)travel to face off against the Detroit Lions (3-7-1) to kick off the turkey day slate at 12:30 ET.
Chicago will likely face backup QB Jeff Driskel who is coming off a dismal performance (207 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) against the Washington Redskins. If Driskel can’t go due to a hamstring injury, then the Lions will go with third-stringer rookie David Blough. Either way, not a good sign for the struggling Lions who are already without stud RB Kerryon Johnson (knee). Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky torched the Lions defense back in week 10 to the tune of (173 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT’s) completing 16 of 23 passes leading the Bears to a 20-13 win. Chicago’s defense currently ranks 4th in the league giving up only 17.09 pts/gm. Facing a depleted Lions team I’ll break one of my betting rules at never taking more than a -150 favorite and buy 1/2 point to go with Detroit Lions Team Total Under 17½ -164.
In the days second game we get the Buffalo Bills (8-3) who travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys (6-5) at 4:30 ET.
Yes, Dallas is the league-leading offense, averaging 303.5 passing yards per game, but will face a tough Buffalo defense currently the league’s third-best unit surrendering only 288 total yds/gm. The Cowboys have home-field advantage but with the current climate surrounding head coach Jason Garrett and owner Jerry Jones’s displeasure in Garrett, I can’t help but wonder if Garrett approaches this game knowing his job is on the line. Plus the fact that the Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season only adds to the pressure in Big D. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has clearly improved in his second season, Allen’s completion percentage is up from 52.8% last season to 60.2% in 2019, and has already thrown for nearly 300 more yards than he did all of last season. I’ll gladly take the plus points on the visitors and go Buffalo Bills +7 -113 and can even see them winning outright.
Back in week 10, the 1-7 Falcons shocked the 7-1 Saints to get their second win of the season. The Falcons defense began to play better after that game but got lit up last week against Tampa Bay surrendering 35 points with WR Chris Godwin hauling in seven balls for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Now that same defense has to deal with Michael Thomas who leads the league in receiving yards with 1,242 total yards (119 yds/gm). The Saints are averaging 368 total yds/gm while the Falcons are allowing 376 yds/gm. I can’t see the lowly Falcons who have nothing to play for getting two wins against the high powered Saints offense. I’ll take my chances with the New Orleans Saints -7 +104
Happy Thanksgiving cappers and best of luck with all your NFL Betting Picks!
NFL Week 12 is here and we are ready for another winning week with our week 12 picks. Last week our 6 picks combined for 98.2 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Christian McCaffrey leading the way with (33.1 DKFP). Now let’s take a look at Tommy’s picks and continue to provide you with winning picks in DraftKings and your player prop bets.
As always we want to start with a game stack that has high scoring upside potential from both teams. With an implied total of 54 points, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons is just the type of matchup we love. The Buccaneers are allowing 371.8 total ypg this season (24th in the league). The Falcons defense has been only slightly better allowing 369.3 total ypg (22nd in the league). With these two lackluster defenses, let’s get right into our game stack picks.
Matt Ryan gets an advantageous match up this week with one of the league’s most extreme funnel defenses. Tampa Bay ranks No. 1 against the run but No. 30 against the pass in DVOA. This plays right into the Falcons strengths, as they rank No. 1 in the league with a 67.7% pass play rate. Although the Falcons have had a rocky season (3-7 record), Ryan is on pace to post his ninth consecutive 4,000-yard passing campaign. I find it hard to believe he won’t have success this week against a Bucs defense that is allowing the second-most DKFP/GM to opposing quarterbacks (25.94). Who will be catching passes from Ryan this week? None other than future Hall of Famer…
Julio Jones is my preferred option to stack alongside Matt Ryan this week. On the year he ranks second in targets per game (9), ninth in red-zone targets per game (1.07), third in fantasy points per game (19), fourth in receiving yards per game (83 yards) and ninth in target market share (23.9%) among wide receivers. The Buccaneers are allowing a league-worst 31.7 DKFP/GM to wide receivers this year. I feel comfortable locking in Julio this week against one of the league’s worst pass defenses.
While Atlanta’s defense has only allowed 12 combined points the last two weeks against the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers, they are still below average against opposing wide receivers. Through eleven weeks they are allowing 25.5 DKFP/GM to wideouts (25th in the league). Insert Mike Evans, who ranks fifth in target market share (24.2%), fourth in targets per game (8), first in receiving yards per game (97 yards), third in red-zone targets per game (1.38) and second in fantasy points per game (20.3) among wide receivers. In a game projected for 54 total points, I fully expect Evans to be involved early and often.
It’s crazy to think that Fournette has accumulated 1,467 total yards, yet has only scored one touchdown this year. It hasn’t been from a lack of opportunity as Fournette owns the fourth-highest snap rate (80.5%), the seventh most rushing attempts per game (17), the ninth most passing targets per game (5) and the fifth most red zone opportunities per game (3.53) among running backs in 2019. He gets an average match up this week against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing 24.58 DKFP/GM (15th) to opposing running backs. This is a pure volume play, but one with massive upside as Fournette is certainly due for some positive touchdown regression.
Dallas Goedert has found himself as one of the main beneficiaries in Philadelphia’s passing game in the last two weeks due to injuries to DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. During that span of time, Goedert has caught seven of eleven targets for 75 yards and 1 TD. Due to the slew of injuries, the Eagles have elected to run more two-tight end sets, which has clearly been a benefit for Goedert. This week he gets a favorable matchup against a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks 26th versus TE’s and has allowed the ninth most DKFP/GM to the position (14.15).
The Bengals defense is in play this week due to the myriad of injuries on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. While the Bengals have been a sieve defensively, ranking 24th in pass defense (258.1 YDS/GM) and 32nd in run defense (167 YDS/GM), one can say they are facing Pittsburgh at the right time. Aside from Maurkice Pounce being suspended, James Conner (shoulder) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee/head) have already been ruled out for Sunday. The projected game total is a paltry 38.5 points. I’m going to have a hard time not locking in a $2,100 defense that is a home dog against a banged-up division opponent. Save some money on defense this week and use that elsewhere, give me the Bengals D.
Let’s continue our winning ways with these players for our Week 12 NFL DraftKings GPP and Cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
NFL Week 11 is here and we are ready to bounce back after a disappointing week 10. Last week our 6 picks combined for 67.4 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Michael Thomas leading the way with (31.2 DKFP). Now let’s take a look at Tommy’s picks and get back to our winning ways and have a profitable week in DraftKings and some player prop bets.
As always we want to start with a game stack that has high scoring upside potential from both teams. With an implied total of 50 points, the Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons fit that bill this week. The Falcons are allowing 371.8 total ypg this season (28th in the league). The Panthers defense has not been much better allowing 363.4 total ypg (22nd in the league). With two lackluster defenses, let’s look at our game stack picks.
Kyle Allen has displayed a nice floor (14 DKFP/GM) since taking over for the injured Cam Newton in week 3. Against the Green Bay Packers last week he threw for a career-high 307 yards showing off his potential ceiling. The Panthers host the Falcons this week in a game projected for 50 total points. It’s a great matchup for Allen as the Falcons defense ranks 31st against QB’s, 25th in passing yards allowed/GM (260.8) and is allowing 23.74 DKFP/GM to the quarterback position (28th).
What really needs to be said about CMC? He is currently on pace to average 30 PPR points/GM in a single season, which hasn’t been done since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. McCaffery’s 94% snap rate and 27.1 opportunities per game clearly justify his $10,500 price tag, but oddly I still think he is too cheap given his role in Carolina’s offense. Atlanta has conceded 124.9 scrimmage yards per game and nine total touchdowns to running backs in 2019. And McCaffery has had success against his division foe, particularly in the passing game as he has posted 36 receptions for 247 yards in four career games against Atlanta. I’m not going to overthink this one, just pay for CMC this week and look for value elsewhere.
If you have been playing NFL DFS for a few years, I’m sure you remember Julio Jones massive 12-300-1 receiving line in 2016 (51 DKP) against the Panthers. Although James Bradberry has proven to be a capable corner in the NFL, Julio Jones is a whole different animal who can produce against anyone. Carolina ranks 30th against WR’s and although they are allowing a league-average 226 passing yards per game, they surprisingly allow the 8th most DKFP/GM to WR’s (39.66). Julio has had a down year, to his standards (53 REC, 791 YDS, 4 TD) but is still on pace to amass 80 receptions and 1,000 yards. It is also worth noting that Carolina will be without starting cornerback Ross Cockrell (Quad), cornerback Donte Jackson is questionable (Hip) and James Bradberry may not be 100% this week as he deals with a groin injury. With all this in mind, I’d be more than happy to roster Julio this week, especially at his absurdly cheap $7,500 price tag.
Jacobs has been nothing short of amazing in his first nine games in the NFL. The rookie running back has piled up 811 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns and solidified the Raiders backfield starting job. He also just saw a career-high five targets in Week 10, increasing his already massive ceiling. This week brings a home matchup versus a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is allowing a league-worst 173 rushing yards/GM and 29.54 DKFP/GM to opposing RB’s (28th). The Raiders are currently 10.5 point home favorites and have the highest implied team total of the week with 29.5 points. I expect Jacobs to see close to 25 total touches, giving him a solid floor in a great match up.
Cook returned last week after a two-week absence due to an ankle injury. He ended up catching six of ten targets for 74 yards in the Saints 26-9 loss to the Falcons. He now gets a stellar matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Matter of fact, Tampa Bay ranks 29th in receptions allowed, 31st in yards allowed and 30th in touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Cook caught four passes for 41 yards and a touchdown in Week 5 versus the Buccaneers, ultimately finishing with 14.1 DKFP with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. With Drew Brees another week healthier and a projected 50 point game total, I expect the Saints to attack Tampa Bay through the air. And at $4,400 Cook is a good value in this spot.
The Jets travel to D.C. to take on Dwayne Haskins Jr. and the Washington Redskins this week. Haskins has had a rough outing in his first two starts, passing for a measly 177 yards and 1 INT. Granted those two starts came against stout pass defenses in the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills. Despite being 2-7, the Jets defense has surprisingly been admirable, ranking 11th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and 2nd in rushing DVOA. I don’t think Washington will have much success on the ground, forcing Haskins to have to throw. The Jets have 10 sacks in their last two games and have scored at least 16 DKFP in three games this year. Given the matchup, I think the Jets are way to cheap at $3,100.
Let’s get back to our winning ways with these players for our Week 11 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
The Knicks prevailed 106-102 against Dallas on the road to win the first matchup between these two teams on November 8. The Knicks led at half 61-57 and each team scored 45 in the second half for the Knicks to hold on to a game that saw 9 lead changes and 7 ties. Marcus Morris led the Knicks with 29 points while Luka Doncic led all Mavs scorers with 38. The Knicks out rebounded the Mavs 56-47 which ultimately led to their victory. Yes, the drama of Kristaps Porzingis against his old team was the backdrop in that game but tonight’s game marks Porzingis’ return to Madison Square Garden for the first time as an opposing player since the Knicks traded him last season.
DALLAS. The mavericks have lost two of their last 3 but come into tonight’s matchup with an extra day of rest more the Knicks and revenge on their mind. The team is ready to support Porzingis and his 18.3 points and 7.9 rebounds per game in his return to NY. The Mavericks enter this contest seventh in the league in scoring offense with 115.3 (T-9) ppg on the season and are surrendering 110.1 (T-13) so far this season.
KNICKS. Although early in the season the Knicks are already 7.5 games behind the Boston Celtics and in last place in the Atlantic Division. The Knicks enter this game 29th in the league in scoring offense with 99.5 ppg, NY also averages just 20.3 assists per contest which puts them at 28th in the league. Marcus Morris leads the team in scoring averaging 18.5 points and 6 rebounds per game. Rookie RJ Barrett is second on the team with 16 points plus 5.8 rebounds per contest on the year. Julius Randle (15.6 points, 9.6 rebounds), Kevin Knox (10.3 points), Bobby Portis (9.2 points) and Mitchell Robinson (9.6 points) are all part of a Knicks team that is 30th in the league in field goal percentage, shooting just 41.6 percent as a team. With controversy surrounding the Knicks front office vs. The Coaching staff (whether true or not) the Knicks are a team that lacks confidence at the moment and not one I want to back.
The Knicks simply are not playing well enough at the moment and I expect Porzingis to put on a show against his former team. This is more of a fade of the Knicks offense than confidence in Dallas’ defense but one we are confident in. Let’s go with the New York Knicks Team Total under 104 -110 (5dimes) in our lone NBA wager tonight Good Luck Cappers!
NFL Week 10 is here and all we do is give you proven winners. Last week our 6 picks combined for 119.5 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Zach Ertz(28.3) and DK Metcalf (28.0 DKFP) helping you win your cash or GPP contests. Now let’s take a look at Tommy’s week 10 picks to keep the winning ways rolling into another profitable week in DraftKings or your player prop bets.
As always we want to start with a game stack that has high scoring upside potential from both teams. With an implied total of 51.5 points, the Falcons at Saints has our attention. The Falcons are allowing 379.5 total ypg this season (25th in the league). The Saints have been pretty stingy defensively only allowing 316.3 total ypg but are league average in passing yards allowed at 232.25 (16th), which brings us to our game stack picks.
Despite missing five weeks due to a thumb injury, Brees returned in top form against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 (373 passing yards, 3 TD and 1 INT). Rested from a bye in week 9, Brees and the Saints host the Falcons in a game with the 4th highest projected weekly total. The Falcons pass defense has been dismal to this point in 2019, allowing 19 total passing touchdowns (T-30th) and 261 passing yards per game (23rd). Furthermore, Atlanta is surrendering the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs which only gives me more confidence in Brees this week at home.
Michael Thomas is the highest priced WR this week on DraftKings and for good reason. If the regular season ended today, he would lead the league in receptions (73), total yards by a receiver (875) and ypg/avg. (109.4). Top that with his 11 red-zone targets (T-3rd), a robust 31% target share to go along with a favorable matchup against a Falcon’s defense that is allowing opposing WR’s to score 42.9 DKFP/GM (29th), and it’s an easy call. I’ll gladly pay up for Thomas this week and look for value elsewhere.
With Mohamed Sanu traded to the New England Patriots, Julio Jones saw his highest target volume of the year in Week 8, catching 10 of 12 targets for 152 yards. Coming off a week 9 Bye this week’s match up with Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple isn’t ideal, but this is Julio Jones were talking about here. Matter of fact, since 2017 (Lattimore’s Rookie year) Julio has 28 receptions for 490 yards in four games against the Saints. Four games! Let that soak in for a minute.
Singletary saw 20 carries in Week 9 after seeing a combined 20 carries in his first four games this season. As the featured back last week, Singletary produced 95 rushing yards and 1 TD while also catching three passes for 45 yards, good for 23 DKFP. Despite that impressive game, his salary only increased by $300 and now he faces a Cleveland Browns defense that is allowing 141 rushing yards per game (30th). The Bills are a run-first team, so I expect Singletary to yet again be a focal point of their offense against New Orleans, giving him great upside at $5,000.
Gesicki is coming off the best performance of his young career, hauling in six passes for 95 yards last week against the New York Jets. Ever since Ryan Fitzpatrick took back the starting QB job in Week 8, Geseki has caught 15 of 20 targets for 207 yards. With Preston Williams out for the remainder of the season, a lot of opportunities are sure to open up in Miami’s passing attack. In addition to the surge in target share, Gesicki gets a matchup against an Indianapolis Colts defense that’s allowing 14.4 DKFP/GM (25th) to opposing tight ends, I love the upside Gesicki presents at his modest $3,100 price tag.
The Giants take on their AFC counterpart in the New York Jets this week. The Jets are one of only three teams that have been pressured on at least 40% of their dropbacks this season (43.5%). This sets up well for a Giants defense that is averaging 2.5 sacks and 1.3 turnovers a game. Plus, we all know Sam Darnold is no stranger to turnovers, as he has thrown nine interceptions in his last four games. Add in a revenge narrative with Leonard Williams set to take on his former team and you have a great value on defense at $2,800.
We plan to continue our winning ways with these players for our Week 10 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
