This Sunday is the conference championship weekend between the final four NFL teams! The two winners will qualify for Super Bowl in Tampa Florida on February 7th. The NFC matchup provides us with two sure-fire Hall of Fame QBs in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The AFC offers us a glimpse into the future with young talented QBs Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Now let’s break down these matchups with our NFL Playoffs: AFC and NFC Championship Analysis & Betting Picks preview.
It will be chilly Lambeau Field in Green Bay with temperatures in the 30’s with a slight chance of snow during the game. This will be the first time Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers will host an NFC Championship Game in his Hall of Fame career. Rodgers and company suffered a 37-20 loss last season to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Rodgers is 1-3 lifetime in conference finals in his illustrious career.
The Bucs’ Tom Brady will be playing in his 14th conference championship game and sports an impressive 9-4 record (all with New England) in his storied career. Brady and the Bucs’ look to become the first team in NFL history to host the Super Bowl on their home field adding even more motivation for Tampa Bay.
The Bucs hosted the Packers in Week 6 and crushed them easily 38-10. A game that was easily Green Bay’s (and Rodgers’) worst game of the season and the Bucs’ best.
Reasons to bet on Green Bay
Green Bay is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has averaged 191.5 rushing yards per game in its past four home games behind the three-headed attack of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon. The Packers ranked first in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage at 78.5 percent this season. Rodgers to DaVante Adams goes without saying. The two have connected on 115 passes for 18 TDs this season and can easily light up the Bucs’ 21st-ranked pass defense. Brady’s inability to scramble makes him an easier target for linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary. Pressure on Brady is a must for Green Bay to succeed.
Reasons to bet on Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road this season. The Packers running game totaled just 94 yards in their first matchup against Tampa Bay as linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David combined for 18 tackles. Ronald Jones II had 117 yards and two TDs in the first meeting vs. Green Bay and that was without fellow RB Leonard Fournette who will join RJ2 in the backfield today. If Jones can put up similar numbers and open up the passing game for Brady, it could be a long day for the Packers defense. The Bucs’ have the No. 1-ranked run defense in football and it will certainly be tested against Green Bay’s rushing attack.
Betting Pick
I believe this game comes down to who has the ball last. It is entirely possible the game is decided by the field goal unit. Both kickers are exceptional with Bucs’ kicker Ryan Succup hitting 28 of 31 FG attempts this season and 1 of 2 on 50+ Yds kicks. Green Bay K Mason Crosby is perfect on the season hitting on all 16 attempts including 4 of 4 for 50 + Yds. The weather, the defenses, and two solid running teams make me believe this one stays tight throughout. It’s not the sexy pick but Let’s take the Under 53.
The Bills will face the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium later this afternoon. Kansas City is in the AFC championship game for the third consecutive season. Buffalo has not been in the AFC championship game since the 1993-94 season. What an exciting matchup between teams led by two young and talented quarterbacks.
The Chiefs defeated the Bills 26-17 back in week 6. Patrick Mahomes picked apart the Bills defense to finish with 21 completions on 26 attempts for 225 passing yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rattled off 161 rushing yards. Josh Allen was sub-par going 14 of 27 passing for only 122 passing yards.
Reasons to bet on Buffalo
Kansas City has failed to cover the spread at Arrowhead Stadium in their past seven games at home while The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games, including playoffs. WR Stefon Diggs has five 100-yard games in Buffalo’s past six games. In that stretch, Diggs has 51 catches on 65 targets for 732 yards and six TDs. I’m not sold on the Chiefs running backs attack against a stingy Bills defense which ranks 1st in the league allowing only 13.5 PPG.
Reasons to bet on Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes – End of story. The all-world QB will play after clearing concussion protocol. Mahomes connected with TE Travis Kelce for five catches, 65 yards and two TDs in the regular-season meeting against Buffalo. RB Edwards-Helaire had 161 yards in the win over Buffalo earlier this season and should suit up after missing the last 3 games with an ankle injury. Expect Kelce to be heavily involved today, especially with WR Sammy Watkins questionable (calf). Bills Rookie RB Zack Moss is out for the season with a knee injury, which puts the entire workload on Devin Singletary. Singletary had a dismal 24 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Chiefs in week 6. Most notably, the Chiefs were the top-ranked offense in the NFL this season, averaging 415.8 yards per game.
Betting Pick
What I’ve seen from Buffalo lately and the poise they are playing with I feel they pull off the upset and advance to Super Bowl 55. Let’s take the Bills Money Line.
Good luck and enjoy the games!
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Josh Allen finished this season ranking top five in passing yards, touchdowns and completion percentage. And while the Colts are no push over defensively, allowing the 10th fewest DKFP/GM to opposing quarterbacks, Allen has all the tools to put up good numbers in any match up. One of those tools are his legs as Allen ranks 8th in rushing yards (421) and 3rd in rushing touchdowns (8) amongst quarterbacks. Another tool at his disposal, wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Not only has Diggs helped Allen orchestrate the Bills into a top three scoring unit (31.3 pts/gm) but he led the NFL in receiving yards (1,535) and receptions (127) this season. Although the Colts have allowed the 8th fewest yards per game (332), they funnel much of their production via the pass, allowing 241 passing yards per game. This fits right into the Bills favor, who rank in the top ten in passing percentage this season.
I expect RB Jonathan Taylor to carry massive ownership after his stellar 41.4 DKFP performance last week versus the Jaguars. I like pivoting to pass catching RB Nyheim Hines this week on DraftKings. I expect the Bills to get ahead in this game, which means Hines, who averaged 12.1 DKFP/GM this season, can hit value in the passing game alone. The Bills allowed 5.2 receptions and 24.7 DKFP per game to opposing running backs this season, while Hines averaged 4 receptions/GM, which ranks 3rd most amongst running backs on the SAT-SUN six game slate. Hines has shown us a ceiling of 28.5 DKFP this season, and with his pass catching role, makes for a good GPP play this week at under $5,000.
The Tennessee Titans host the Baltimore Ravens in the highest projected game total of the week (55 O/U). I really like the price on Mark Andrews this weekend and see him as a great buy low on DraftKings. He owns a 25% target share, which ranks T4 amongst all FLEX players on the SAT-SUN six game slate. That kind of volume for a tight end is tasty, especially in a match up with a Titans defense that has allowed 13 DKFP/GM to opposing tight ends.
Question #1: How do you beat Tom Brady? Answer: Interior pressure through the “A” gaps. Question #2: What does the Washington Football team do well? Answer: Get pressure on the quarterback. On the season, Washington ranks 6th in the NFL with 47 sacks on defense. Led by former first-round draft picks DL Jonathan Allen, DL Da’Ron Payne, DL Montez Sweat, and DL Chase Young, Washington owns the seventh-highest pressure rate (26.2%) when only rushing four defenders. This has proven to be a recipe for success when playing against a Tom Brady offense. This is a pure GPP punt play, with the hopes that Washington can force the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into some obvious passing situations and let their “ferocious four” get after Brady and company.
The Buffalo Bills have now made the AFC playoffs for the third time in four years. The 2020 campaign ends with the Bills crowned the AFC East Champions. Buffalo kicks off their quest to raise the Lombardi Trophy on Saturday against the Indianapolis Colts at 1:05 PM EST. The line currently sits at Bills – 6.5 (51). There are a few things that all Champions seem to have in common. So what makes for a good Super Bowl contender? Is it strong defense, an offense that is clicking at the right time? A coach who has big-game experience? Maybe it’s having all your players healthy. No matter what the magic formula, the question we pose is “Are the Buffalo Bills a Super Bowl contender?”
High Powered Offense
Some day #BillsMafia will build a statue in offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s honor. Not only has he been able to tailor an offense to QB Josh Allen’s strengths, but he also built a unit that ranks second, only behind the Green Bay Packers, in scoring (31.3 PTS/GM) this season. In fact, the Bills have not had a top-five scoring offense since 1992, when Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas orchestrated the K-Gun offense to four straight super bowls appearances.
Franchise QB in the making
Of course, Josh Allen has a lot left to prove. But I think it is safe to say that he is heading in the right direction. On the season, Allen ranks top five in passing yards (4,544). He also collected an impressive 46 total TDs (37 passing TD, 8 rushing TD, and 1 receiving TD). Allen has already broken single-season franchise records in passing yards (4,544), passing touchdowns (37), and 300-yard games in a season (8). More importantly he has increased his completion percentage to 69%, which ranks fourth-best in the league.
Wide Receiver Weapons
It feels weird to say, but the Buffalo Bills are a legit passing offense this season. Much of that can be attributed to the success of newly acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Seriously though, all he has done is lead the NFL in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) while amassing eight touchdowns. The last time the Bills had a wide receiver post similar numbers was in 2002 when Eric Moulds had 100 receptions for 1,292 yards and ten touchdowns.
Adding Diggs to the fold has also paid dividends for slot receiver Cole Beasley. Cole also set career highs in his second year with the Bills. Before leaving late in week 16 versus the New England Patriots due to a knee injury, Beasley was on pace for his first 1,000-yard season while snagging a career-high 82 receptions. Beasley is considered week to week with the injury. Nonetheless, the Bills signed bonafide slot receiver Kenny Stills as insurance.
John “Smoke” Brown is the number three receiver, which means absolutely nothing in this Bills offense as they find ways to utilize everyone in their offense (how many of you played Isaiah Mckenzie in DFS week 17?). Brown had injury issues this season, posting a 33-458-3 receiving line in only nine games played. However, he is still a guy who can take the top off any defense with an elite 4.34-second 40-yard dash. Lastly, rookie receiver Gabriel Davis has been a hidden gem for the Bills. He hauled in 35 passes for 599 yards and finished the season T2 amongst rookie wide receivers with seven touchdowns.
As discussed, gone are the days of pounding the rock and relying solely on a dominant defense for the Bills. Buffalo ranks in the top ten in passing percentage this season, after ranking in the bottom ten last year. Running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined for 1,168 rushing yards and six touchdowns in 2020. Although they were not asked to do much, they still averaged an admirable 4.4 yards per carry.
If they can open their running game up during the postseason, Buffalo could be the team in the AFC that can match up well with the Super Bowl favorites Kansas City Chiefs. Furthermore, with Josh Allen running around and Stefon Diggs “toying” with defensive backs, the Bills can put up points on anybody, as evidenced by the 56 points they put up against a good Miami Dolphins defense in week 17.
Opportunistic Defense
Typically, when your casual fan thinks of the Bills, they think of a team led by a dominant defense. Buffalo boasts a rather opportunistic defense, ranking 3rd in total turnovers (26) and 13th in sacks (38). This season they have allowed 23.4 PTS/GM, which ranks 16th in the league, after only allowing 16.2 PTS/GM last year, which was second-best in the league. Injuries at linebacker and cornerback are certainly a contributing factor but also inconsistent play from a newly formed interior defensive line has plagued Buffalo at times.
Playing Well at the Right Time
When defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson left via free agency, they brought 36% of Buffalo’s total sacks in 2019 with them. General Manager Brandon Beene elected to sign former Carolina Panthers Mario Addison and Vernon Butler while also bringing in former Seattle Seahawks Swiss army knife Quinton Jefferson. The stats may not be there, as the trio only accounted for 8 of 38 (21%) sacks this season. But before their week 17 game against the Dolphins, in which they rested most starters at halftime, the defense only allowed 20+ points in one game since week 11. Simply put, the Bills defense has taken its time, but it may begin gelling at the right time. Super Bowl contenders always play exceptional defense.
CB Tre’davious White is an elite shut down player who typically shadows opposing teams No.1 WR. LB Tremaine Edmunds is a tackling machine and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer have formed one of the NFL’s elite safety tandems. But one player, in particular, is vital to the defense’s success, linebacker Matt Milano. Milano missed close to half the season due to pectoral and hamstring injuries. But when he has been on the field, he is one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. In only ten games played this season, he allowed the 11th fewest yards per completion (7.2) amongst ALL defensive players. Fortunately, Milano played 88% of the snaps in week 16 and 49% last week. Milano is heading into the playoffs with a clean bill of health, which makes this Bills defense dangerous.
Wild Card Preview: Indianapolis Colts
The Bills will be hosting the Indianapolis Colts in their first home playoff game since 1996. This game features two of the NFL’s top-scoring offenses thus Vegas currently has the total set at 51. The second-highest of this weekend’s games. Keep a close eye on Buffalo WR Cole Beasley who has been dealing with a knee injury.
With the Colts defense running much more zone this year, having Beasley available for the Bills is paramount, as he is a master in finding the soft spots in the zone. Colts LT Anthony Castonzo, who has been battling knee/ankle injuries all season will not play this week. His spot will be manned by veteran LT Jared Veldheer. Jared just came out of retirement and saw his first game action of the season last week. Veldheer held his own, albeit against a Jacksonville defense that is second-worst in yards (418) and points (31) allowed per game this season.
So, Are the Buffalo Bills a Super Bowl contender?
If the Bills can shut down rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for a sensational 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, as well as force QB Phillip Rivers to beat them through the air, they should come out with the win and solidify their status as a Super Bowl contender.
Wager
If QB Josh Allen continues to fire on all cylinders I feel comfortable taking the Bills -6.5 to start their Super Bowl title run and solidify them the Buffalo Bills as Super Bowl contenders.
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The NFL has made it clear it was determined to finish the season regardless of Covid-19. We are now days away from completing a season that at times seemed in doubt. The number of NFL coronavirus updates over the season has been at times overwhelming to process as DFS players and Sports Bettors. I believe we owe thanks to the league for bringing football to us during a difficult time. We also want to thank all our loyal readers who stuck with us through great weeks and some weeks that were forgettable. We now look forward to the playoffs and continuing to offer our analysis in DraftKings but now we bring you our DraftKings NFL Week 17 Picks.
The Tennessee Titans can clinch the AFC South title with a win over the Texans or if the Indianapolis Colts lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. While the Titans rely heavily on their running game, the Texans unfortunately have been plagued by inconsistencies throughout 2020. Unquestionably both these defenses are quite inefficient. Both squads rank near the bottom of the league in points allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. As both teams head in opposite directions this game represents the perfect example of the conundrum that is in making DraftKings NFL Week 17 Picks. However, with a 56.5-point game total and the Titans in a must-win game, Tennessee is my favorite stack this week on DraftKings.
We all know Derrick Henry is the star of this offense. Therefore, I simply elect to use the good old QB-RB stack this week. In particular, I want exposure to ALL the Titans points scored in week 17. Therefore what better way then playing both Ryan Tannehill and his stud running back. As I mentioned before, the Texan’s defense has been abysmal on all fronts. Houston has allowed a whopping 32.3 DKFP to opposing backfields this season. No surprise that is the worst in the league. Furthermore, they surrender a hefty 19.4 DKFP/GM to opposing quarterbacks as well. See why I love this stack?
First off, Derrick Henry leads the league with 1,777 rushing yards. Henry needs only needs 223 yards to become the eighth member of the 2,000-yards in a season club. Secondly, there is no doubt that Henry will be the offensive focus for Tennessee this week. The DraftKings price is high on him, but when is it not? Henry averages an impressive 21.7 DKFP/GM. Lastly, he has rushed for 100+ yards in nine games and has over 200 yards in 2 games this season. No need to overthink this, use Henry in your GPP and Cash lineups this week.
Ryan Tannehill is the wild card here as I fully expect the Titans to run Derrick Henry into the ground. If the Texans can put up some points (more on that below), both Tannehill and Henry can easily hit value. On the season, Tannehill has thrown for 3,601 yards with 32 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions, resulting in 22.2 DKFP/GM. However, what stands out most is his sneaky rushing upside. Tannehill ranks 13th in rushing yards (228) and tied for 6th in rushing touchdowns (5) amongst quarterbacks this season.
Fun Fact
In their first meeting versus the Texans this year both Tannehill and Henry had monster games. Henry rushed for 212 yards and 2 TDs to finish with 43.4 DKFP. Tannehill threw for 366 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with 33.6 DKFP. I’ll take my “chances” we can get a repeat performance in week 17.
Although the Houston Texans (4-11) have had a disappointing season, QB Deshaun Watson has had a remarkable year. He has thrown for more yards (4,458) and touchdowns (30) than he has in any other season. And since wideout Will Fuller has been out of the lineup, Brandin Cooks has stepped into the wide receiver No. 1 role in Houston. Cooks has filled in admirably, catching 18 of 25 targets for 265 yards and one touchdown over that three-week span. In addition, Cooks is coming off a giant 30.1 DKFP game last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. This week Cooks gets a Titans defense that has allowed the third most DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers (44 DKFP). Cooks will be well represented in my GPP lineups in week 17.
The Los Angeles Rams running back by committee approach has been tossed out that window. Darrell Henderson (ankle) is out and Cam Akers (ankle) is questionable this week in their finale versus the Arizona Cardinals. The opportunity to shine could not be any greater for Malcolm Brown. He is slated to start at running back in a critical win-and-you’re-in game. The match-up with Arizona is certainly enticing. Over the last four weeks, Arizona has allowed the 8th most rushing yards per game (113.3) and the 5th most DKFP/GM (28.7 DKFP/GM) to opposing backfields. Furthermore, with quarterback Jared Goff (thumb) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (COVID 19) out this week, the Rams should rely heavily on their running game.
The only time Brown has seen at least 15 touches this season came in week one versus the Dallas Cowboys where he rushed for 79 yards and two touchdowns while hauling in three passes for an additional 31 yards, finishing with 26 DKFP respectively. At $4,300 Malcolm Brown is simply too cheap given the situation. Brown will be a really nice GPP option this week.
The Seattle Seahawks are still in play for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but first, they need to take care of business versus the San Francisco 49ers as well as have both the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints lose this week. With that said, Seattle should be rolling out all their starters on Sunday and the first thing that stands out to me is how cheap DK Metcalf is. Although Metcalf has not hit the 20 DKFP mark in the last four weeks, he makes for a great buy-low option this week in GPP’s versus the 49ers.
On the year, Metcalf ranks in the top five amongst wide receivers in receiving yards, touchdowns, and air yards. Moreover, San Francisco has allowed the 8th most DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers (41 DKFP) over the last four weeks. Metcalf went off in the first meeting versus the Niners, catching 12 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns, good for 43.1 DKFP. If he can even produce half of those results he makes for a great play in week 17 cash lineups.
The Minnesota Vikings placed tight end Kyle Rudolph (foot) on injured reserve yesterday, which means Irv Smith Jr. should be in line for the bulk of tight end snaps again this week versus Detroit Lions. The Lions have been a disaster on the defensive side of the ball all season. Detroit currently allows the most points scored per game (32.1) and the second-most yards allowed per game (414). Add that to the fact that they have allowed the second-most DKFP/GM to opposing tight ends (18.4 DKFP) over the last four weeks and Smith Jr. makes for a fantastic cheap tight end play. RB Dalvin Cook (personal) has been ruled out, leaving more target shares to distribute among the Viking’s offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin has already stated that QB Ben Roethlisberger will sit out this weekend. That means backup Mason Rudolph will be getting the start at quarterback for the Steelers. Rudolph’s start comes a year after DE Myles Garrett tried to knock his head off in a full out melee towards the end of a Thursday night game in 2019. The difference this year is that the Browns have a lot to play for. Cleveland wins and they clinch their first playoff berth in 18 years. Yes, the Steelers have allowed the fewest sacks this season, but much of that can be attributed to Ben Roethlisberger’s lightning-quick release. However, with Rudolph starting, the Browns should be able to find more success with their pass rush than against Roethlisberger.
In ten games last year, Rudolph was sacked 15 times while throwing nine interceptions, which is exactly what we like to see when rostering the Browns defense this week.
These are some of the players we will have in our GPP and Cash lineups for DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 17 Picks. Good Luck, and may your screens always be green.
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