NFL Week 8 is here and I hope you tailed Tommy’s picks last week, those players combined for 111 DraftKings Fantasy Points with Jacoby Brissett (31.6 DKFP) and DeAndre Hopkins (28.6 DKFP) leading the way. Now Let’s take a look at some week 8 plays to make you some money on DraftKings or your player prop bets.
With an implied total of 49 points as of this writing, I expect a lackluster defensive performance from both teams and the points to pile up in this contest. The Giants are allowing 26.7 points and 406.6 yards of total offense per game. The Lions have surrendered 139.2 yards per game on the ground, ranking 28th in the league. With that in mind let’s start this week’s picks with our top game stack.
Stafford is fresh off a magnificent game against the Minnesota Vikings, in which he threw for 364 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, finishing with 32.56 DKFP. He now gets an even better matchup against a Giants defense that is allowing 21.4 FPTS/GM to QB’s (23rd). In fact, the G-Men defensively rank in the bottom ten of the league in Catch % allowed (69%), passing yards allowed (1,926 YDS), yards after catch (860 YAC) and passing TD’s allowed (10). With Kerryon Johnson (knee) placed on the IR, I expect Stafford to shoulder the load in this potential shootout.
Golladay is coming off a dismal week seven performance against the Vikings. He still saw over 80% of the offensive snaps, but only managed one catch for 22 yards on two targets. It was painful to watch, as Marvin Jones Jr. scored four touchdowns, good for 43.3 DKFP. Golladay now gets a match up with a Giants defense that is allowing 41.3 FPTS/GM to the WR position (26th) and the second most yards per pass attempt in 2019. Golladay still owns a 22% target market share, the seventh most air yards (660) to go along with four touchdowns on the year. In a plus matchup, I really like Golladay to bounce back this week.
Barkley rushed 18 times for 72 yards and one touchdown while bringing in three of five targets for an additional 8 yards last week in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Four weeks removed from a high ankle sprain and its no question that Barkley can handle his full workload. Now he receives a dream match up with a Detroit defense that ranks bottom five in yards per carry allowed (4.9 YPC), FPTS/GM allowed to RB’s (32.5) and rushing TD’s allowed (7 TD). Barkley has seen at least five targets in each game this year, giving him a solid floor regardless of game script.
Gurely and the Rams are massive favorites (-13) and are implied to score a slate high 30.5 points against the Cincinnati Bengals this week in London. This feels like a prototypical “get right” spot for Gurely, as Cincinatti has been a disaster defensively, particularly against opposing RB’s. This year they have allowed 5.2 YPC (32nd), 9 total rushing TD’s (T-31st) and a whopping 33.5 FPTS/GM to RB’s (32nd). Gurley has been rather disappointing in 2019, averaging 14.9 DKFP per game, but is still seeing over 60% of the RB snaps and 17.5 combined carries/targets per game. And if Malcolm Brown continues to be OUT (ankle) this week, I love the potential upside of Gurley in this spot.
Delanie Walker (ankle) exited the game early last week, allowing Jonnu Smith to step in and catch all three of his targets for 64 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 11 passing TD’s in 2019 (T-22nd) and opposing tight ends have scored 19.1 FPTS/GM, which is second most in the league. With Walker ruled OUT on Friday, I’m more then happy to roster Smith at a measly $2,800.
The Panthers travel to San Francisco this week in what is expected to be a low scoring game featuring two stout defenses. Carolina is simply too cheap for a team averaging 4.5 sacks and 2.5 turnovers per game in 2019. It’s interesting that their price dropped $900 after their dominant performance week six against Tampa Bay (5 INT, 2 fumble recoveries and 7 sacks). I understand the 49ers want to run the ball this week, but they will have to throw at times and I like the Panthers chances of getting to Jimmy Garoppolo and possibly forcing a turnover or two.
All of these players will be heavily represented in our Week 8 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
NBA is back! To start off our NBA season let’s take a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0) who will take on the Brooklyn Nets (0-0) to open the season for both teams at 7:35 PM tonight from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
A quick recap of Last Year: The Minnesota Timberwolves ended last season with a 36-46 record to finish in 11th position in the Western Conference. The Wolves averaged 112 points per contest while surrendering 113. The Brooklyn Nets ended with a 42-40 record, good for 6th position in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn made the playoffs and scored a road win against Philadelphia but the Sixers recorded four consecutive victories and eliminated the Nets. The Nets averaged 112 points per game while surrendering 112 last season.
Minnesota will run the offense through former Kentucky Wildcat Karl-Anthony Towns. The All-Star center averaged 24 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, and 1.6 blocks per game last year. Starting point guard Jeff Teague averaged 12 points and eight dishes last year and will need to get KAT the ball while former 1st round pick Andrew Wiggins who averaged 18 points per game last year will need to score consistently from the forward position to take some of the pressure off Towns. Not much has changed for the Wolves for 2018 who brought Jake Layman and Noah Vonleh in while losing Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson.
Brooklyn, on the other hand, landed coveted free agents Kyrie Irving who averaged 24 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game last year with Boston, along with DeAndre Jordan who averaged 13 points and 15 rebounds per game last year. Most notably was the addition of MVP and World Champion Kevin Durant (not expected to play until later this season). Though KD won’t factor in the game it is nice to have that kind of leadership in the locker room. The Nets return Caris LeVert who contributed 13.7 ppg, Joe Harris who impressed with a 47.4 3P% and Spencer Dinwiddie who dropped 16.8 ppg last year.
The Wolves are looking to win their 4th consecutive game against the Nets to start their season but the Nets have an excellent backcourt and are stronger and deeper in the paint. I look for Kyrie to make a statement with his new team at home on opening night. If DeAndre Jordan, and can keep Towns in check and the rest of the Nets hit their shots, I have no problem laying the points with the Nets tonight. Let’s kick off our 2019 NBA betting season with the Brooklyn Nets -3.5 -104 (Pinnacle) over the Minnesota Timberwolves for Wednesday, October 23rd, 2019. Good Luck Cappers!
NFL Week 7 is here and Tommy is back to offer some insight into his DraftKings roster plays for Sunday’s 1:00 and 4:00 main slate games. Let’s break it down and find players to make you some money on DraftKings or your player prop bets today.
Jacoby Brissett has filled in admirably for the recently retired Andrew Luck, averaging 212 passing YDS/GM to go along with 11 total TDs and only 4 turnovers. He now gets a home matchup against a Houston Texans defense that has allowed 22.9 DKP (DraftKings Points) per game to the QB position, as well as an AFC worst 289 passing yards allowed per game. The Texan’s strength is in stopping the run, ranking 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (88) and opponents have taken notice, passing the ball 68% of the time. This all sets up well for Brissett at $5,600. With that in mind, I like to stack him with…
Hilton has historically dominated the Texans in his career. In 14 games against Houston, he is averaging 5.42 receptions per game, 103.2 yards per game and has an impressive 9 total career TDs. Although most of that damage came with Andrew Luck at QB, Hilton has found plenty of success with Brissett at the helm in 2019. In four games played this year, Hilton is averaging 7.25 targets per game, 58 YPG and 1 TD per game. Top that with his 7 red-zone targets, which ranks 3rd in the NFL, and you have a great value at $5,900. Houston may be short-handed at cornerback this week, as Bradley Roby and Jonathan Joseph are both battling hamstring injuries. This doesn’t bode well for a secondary that has been allowing 43 DKP to opposing wide receivers (4th highest in NFL) in 2019. Indy and Houston have an implied game total of 48 as of this writing which leads me to continue the game stack with…
Outside of his dominant week one performance (8 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD) against the New Orleans Saints, Hopkins has been quiet, averaging 12.42 DKP per game over his last five games. He is still seeing 9.3 targets per game, and his 28% target market share ranks 10th among wide receivers in air yards with 609. Indianapolis primarily runs a zone defense and chooses to give it up underneath, which works in the favor of Hopkins and his 10.9 aDOT (average depth of target). While he is still highly-priced at $7,800, it’s just a matter of time before Hopkins posts another monster game. And who knows, his inflated price tag may keep his ownership down, making him a great GPP play.
Fournette has an incredible match up this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. So far, in 2019, the Bengals possess the sixth-worst DVOA against the run and have allowed an average of 35.8 DKP per game to opposing RB’s. Although Fournette has only scored 1 TD this year, it hasn’t been from lack of opportunity. He has seen the 5th most red zone attempts among RB’s, is averaging 23.5 touches per game, possesses a near 90% snap count and is averaging 6 targets per game in 2019. With his enormous usage rate and cheap price tag, Fournette will surely be a popular play this week. I am willing to eat the chalk, especially on a player that is expected for some massive touchdown potential.
Andrews gets a great matchup this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up an average of 16.25 DKP per game to opposing TE’s (fourth-most in the league). In 2019, Andrews owns a 23% target market share, averages 8 targets per game and ranks 3rd among TE’s in air yards (435) as well as TD’s (3). Marquise Brown (ankle) hasn’t practiced all week and is truly questionable. If he can’t go, Mark Andrews should absorb even more targets, giving him a solid floor and a massive upside for $4,800.
Chicago is way too cheap this week at home against the New Orleans Saints. RB Alvin Kamara, WR Tre’Quan Smith, and TE Jared Cook have all been ruled OUT, leaving New Orleans short-handed on offense. The Bears, on the other hand, are coming into this game well-rested, having played two weeks ago in London. In five games thus far, Chicago has 17 sacks and 10 turnovers, proving they are still a dominant force. And with a 37 point game total (lowest of the week) I love the value of the Bears at $3,000.
All of these players will be heavily represented in our Week 7 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
NFL Week 6 is here and Tommy is back to offer some insight into his DraftKings roster plays for Sunday’s 1:00 and 4:00 main slate games. Let’s break it down and find players to make you some money on DraftKings or your player prop bets today.
Jackson is coming off his worst start of the year, throwing for under 200 yards with 1 TD and 3 interceptions last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He did rush for 70 yards however, finishing the game with 14.4 DKP respectively. Jackson gets another divisional matchup this week against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals. So far this season, the Bengals defense has given up an average of 20.4 fantasy points per game to the QB position. They also rank towards the bottom of the league in yards allowed per play (6.5). The total of this game opened at 36 points, but since then has been bet up to 48 points (as of Wednesday), indicating some massive sharp money on the over. On the year Jackson is averaging 26.5 DraftKings pts/gm and has thrown for over 250 yards in four out of five games.
Surprisingly, the Ravens defense has not been the powerhouse we’ve been used to seeing in years past. In fact, they are giving up 6.7 yards per play in 2019 and are allowing an average of 40.2 fantasy points per game to the WR position (24th). Baltimore has particularly been generous to slot wide receivers this year allowing Larry Fitzgerald (6 rec) and Christian Kirk (5 rec) to catch 11 passes for a combined 218 yards, Jarvis Landry to catch 8 passes for 167 yards and JuJu Smith-Schuster to catch 7 passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. This bodes well for Tyler Boyd who spends the majority of his time in the slot. With A.J. Green on the mend, Boyd has caught 37 of 53 targets for 406 yards and 1 TD, solidifying himself as Andy Dalton‘ s favorite target. The Ravens are favored by 11 pts so I expect the Bengals to have to throw early and often in this one, giving Boyd massive upside at $6,300.
Bell and the entire Jets offense get a boost with Sam Darnold slated to return this week against the Dallas Cowboys. On the year Bell is playing close to 90% of his team’s offensive snaps, seeing 85% of the running plays and receiving just over 30% of the passing market share. Dallas just got torched by Aaron Jones in week five, as he rushed for 4 TDs, the Cowboys defense is allowing an average of 29.22 fantasy points per game to the RB position in 2019 (28th). I’d fire Bell up this week, especially at his discounted price of $6,400.
Hooper gets the king of all matchups this week versus the Arizona Cardinals, who are surrendering an average of 25 fantasy points per game to the tight end position good for dead last in the league. The following tight ends had their way against the Cardinals so far this season
Hooper has seen at least six targets in every game this year, solidifying a good floor. The upside lies within an Atlanta offense that cannot seem to run the ball and has been passing close to 70% of the time in neutral game scripts.
You know my philosophy by now when it comes to picking a defense, are they cheap and can they get pressure on the QB? Well, the Jets are cheap, $1,500 to be a matter of fact (lowest-priced defense since week 1 of 2017 season). Although they are only averaging 1.5 sacks a game (28th), they are getting a Dallas offensive line that is banged up as left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle La’el Collins are coming off of injuries. It’s worth noting that the Jets own the league’s tenth best defense in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and are a massive home dog. The NFL is full of week to week oddities, and I would not be surprised if the Jets defense luck their way into a few sacks and possibly a turnover.
All of these players will be heavily represented in our Week 6 NFL DraftKings GPP and cash lineups for Sunday’s main slate. Good Luck!
The Washington Nationals (93-69) stay on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series tonight from Busch Stadium at 8:08 ET.
WASHINGTON will send righty Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 1.80 ERA) to the mound for Game 1. Sanchez started Game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers and held them to only one run scattering four hits over five innings with nine strikeouts. The Dodgers would go on to win the game 10-4 but the damage came after Sanchez departed. Sanchez concluded the 2019 campaign 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
ST. LOUIS will counter with right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.50 ERA). The 31-year-old veteran saw action against the Atlanta Braves so far this postseason allowing 1 ER on 3 hits in 6 innings of work. He finished the season with a 4.16 ERA to go along with a 1.22 WHIP and 9-14 record this season.
RELIEVERS. During the regular season, the Nationals’ bullpen was the worst in baseball with a 5.66 ERA. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bullpen ERA was 3.82, good for fifth in the majors. St. Louis won the regular-season series 5-2 and held the Nationals to fewer than 2.5 runs per game. The Cards will also have home-field advantage in this series.
BASERUNNING. The Nats led the National League with 116 steals on the season. Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has long been one of the best in the biz at cutting down opposing base-runners having thrown out 40% of attempted baserunners over his 16-year career.
HITTING. Both teams have proven in their first rounds they can hit and hit in the clutch. I’d give a slight edge to the Nats at the moment but this is the playoffs and anything can happen. Let’s take a look at how they finished the season in key hitting stats in the NL.
Runs
Doubles
HRs
AVG.
OBP
SLG
St. Louis
10th
13th
12th
11th
9th
12th
Washington
2nd
6th
6th
1st
1st
3rd
SUMMARY. The Cardinals put together an excellent pitching plan against the Braves and have the arms to cool the Nationals’ hot bats. Plus the Cardinals are superior in the bullpen and possess a defense that didn’t make more than 2 errors in a game all season. The cards will face Max Scherzer followed by Stephen Strasburg then Patrick Corbin in games 2-4 making this game there best opportunity to secure a win. I don’t know if the Cardinals will win the series but I’ll gladly take my chances on them in Game 1 to pick up the win. Let’s go with St. Louis Moneyline -115 (5dimes). Good luck cappers enjoy the MLB postseason. More free plays to come!
