by Tommy | Oct 24, 2020 | DraftKings, NFL
Last week our 7 picks combined for 114.3 DKFP (DraftKings Fantasy Points). Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry led the way with 43.4 DKFP. We were also very confident in the Miami Dolphins defense last week who subsequently delivered 15.0 DKFP. Importantly, several of our loyal readers had green screens in week 6. Now, let’s keep the winning going in our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 7 Picks: Sunday Main Slate picks.
Top Stack – Buffalo Bills
Allen has cooled off the last two weeks after averaging 33.1 DKFP/GM through the first four weeks of the season. Even so, Allen still has an impressive completion percentage of 67% (147 for 216) while tossing 16 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions this season. In addition to his 143 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns and you have a fantasy football machine. Allen threw for his first career 300-yard game in week 1 versus the Jets. Josh also added 57 rushing yards and three total touchdowns to finish with 33.2 DKFP. After two disappointing losses to league powerhouses Tennesse Titans and Kansas City, I think Allen and the Bills get back on track this week against a Jets defense that has allowed 30.8 points per game in 2020.
Diggs has been exactly what the Buffalo Bills have desperately needed for the last decade, a true No. 1 wide receiver. Not only does Diggs lead the AFC in receiving yards with 555, but he also ranks in the top ten in market share (27%), total receptions (42), and air yards (637). Fellow wide receiver John Brown (knee) has been ruled out this week. Thus opening up even more targets for Diggs versus the Jets who have allowed 35.5 DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers. Diggs will be well represented in my GPP and Cash lineups this week.
Let’s keep It Going With…
First of all, Crowder has seen double-digit targets in all four games that he has played in this year. He has also amassed 100 yards receiving in three of those four games. Secondly, The Bills pass defense has issues over the middle of the field. Particularly due to starting linebacker Matt Milano sitting out the last two weeks with a pectoral injury. Lastly, Crowder spends a massive 86% of the time lined up in the slot, so the high percentage of plays over the middle should be available. Furthermore, with a league-leading (tied with DeAndre Hopkins) 32% target share in a game where the Jets are projected to be trailing, I love continuing my GPP stack with Crowder this week.
*Crowder (groin) was limited in practice on Friday, so be sure to monitor the news in the event he does not suit up. Breshad Perriman would be my preferred pivot at $3,700 on.
Running Back
The Saints have ruled out WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, leaving nearly a 40% target share available in the passing game. That is where stud running back Alvin Kamara thrives, ranking in the top ten in target share at 26%. Kamara has been nothing short of spectacular through five games. He is only averaging 30.1 DKFP/GM and accumulating 676 yards from scrimmage along with seven total touchdowns. In addition, Kamara should be psyched to face a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the fourth-most DKFP/GM to opposing running backs in 2020. Kamara is a cash game staple this week.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill Kansas City Chiefs $6,400
It appears Jack Frost will be staying in Denver this weekend. Currently, temperatures are expected to float in the low 20’s with 80% precipitation. You know what that means!? SNOW DAY! Yes, it feels like it was only last year that we saw these two teams play in a snow game…wait it was last year, December 15th, 2019..Denver at Kansas City. The Chiefs won 23-3 and Tyreek Hill finished the game with a 5-67-2 receiving line and 23.8 DKFP. This one is simple, Hill has not been priced in the mid 6k range since September 9th, 2018. Back then he went off for 45.3 DKFP on an 8-169-2 receiving line against the San Diego Chargers. The Broncos are allowing 38 DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers and with Travis Kelce expected to be popular this week, I am looking to pivot to an egregiously cheap, Cheap, CHEAP, Tyreek Hill.
Tight End
Eric Ebron Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,000)
Ebron disappointed last week in a good matchup against the Cleveland Browns, finishing with a 2-9-0 receiving line. Against Cleveland, he only saw four targets to finish with a dismal 2.9 DKFP. However, there is reason to believe in him this week against a Titans defense that has allowed a 25-290-4 receiving line to opposing tight ends through five games. Although the Steelers have a plethora of passing options, Ebron has managed to see an average of 5.5 targets/GM over the last four games. In a game currently projected for 50.5 total points and with a decent target market share, Ebron is my preferred choice at a modest $4,000 on DraftKings.
Defense
Washington’s defense ranks in the top ten in both passing yards allowed per game (207 passing yds/GM) and total sacks (16). This week they host the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East divisional showdown. The Cowboys have a laundry list of injuries this week. Andy Dalton will be making his second straight start at QB for Dak Prescott (ankle). Starting guard Zack Martin (concussion) is unlikely to play and Brandon Knight, who was filling in for starting left tackle Tyron Smith (neck), is also out this week with a knee injury. I expect Washington’s ferocious front seven to have a field day against a damaged Cowboys offense who surrendered three sacks and committed four turnovers last week against the Arizona Cardinals.
These are just some of the players we will have in our GPP and Cash lineups for DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 7 Picks: Sunday Main Slate. Good Luck, and may your screens always be green.
by Tommy | Oct 18, 2020 | DraftKings, NFL
Last week our 7 picks combined for 113 total DKFP (DraftKings Fantasy Points). Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins led the way with 28.1 DKFP. We were also very confident in Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott last week who delivered 23.5 DKFP. Importantly, several of our loyal readers had green screens in week 5. Now, let’s keep the winning going in our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks: Sunday Main Slate picks.
Okay, hear me out, please. I wrote up Jones last week as my QB vs. the Dallas Cowboys and consequently he had his worst fantasy performance of the year, finishing with 222 passing yards and an abismal -7 rushing yards, to finish with 9.2 DKFP. However this week he faces the Washington Football Team, who have allowed 22.1 DKFP/GM to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks as the 6th best match-up for QB’s. If not this week, then when!? Let’s hope Danny can drop some dimes this week, because I plan on playing him again at $5,400 in GPP formats on DraftKings.
Furthermore, Washington allows the fifth most DKFP/GM to opposing tight ends (18.2 DKFP/GM). Engram saw ten targets in week 4, but then a laughable two targets last week versus Dallas, although he managed to salvage his day with a rushing touchdown. The same philosophy for Jones applies to Engram, if not this week, then when? I like the $4,900 price tag for Engram against a suspect defense in GPP formats.
Let’s keep It Going With…
Not only is McLaurin the unquestioned No. 1 WR in Washington but also he is surprisingly under $6,000 this week on DraftKings. I understand the inconsistencies at quarterback is a concern in Washington but McLaurin still has a 25.2% target market share. I am willing to take a chance on McLaurin at a bargain price against a Giants defense that has allowed the 11th most DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers (39.5 DKFP/GM). In other words, I’ll gladly take McLaurin in my GPP and cash lineups this week.
Running Back
In two games versus the Houston Texans last year, Henry rushed for 297 total yards and 3 TD’s. It is worth noting that most of his damage came in the December 29th game, where Henry rushed for 211 yards and 3 TD’s, finishing with a whopping 42.1 DKFP. Furthermore, the Texans have allowed the sixth most DKFP/GM to opposing running backs this year. As a home favorite, with a projected total of 53 points in a great match up, Henry is the stud running back that I am willing to pay up for this week to in plently of my cash lineups.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams Green Bay Packers ($8,000)
Adams returns to the field after missing the last three weeks due to a hamstring injury. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been league average against the pass, allowing 35 DKFP/GM to opposing wide receivers and 240 passing yards/GM. But we all know how much Aaron Rodgers loves targeting his favorite weapon, as Adams 14 catches on 17 targets for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns versus the Detroit Lions in week one is evidence of. Furthermore, the total in this game has jumped from 51.5 to 55 throughout the week. As a result this sets up for a potentially high scoring game and if that’s the case…I’ll take ALL the Devante Adams in my GPP and cash lineups please and thank you.
Tight End
Irv Smith Jr Minnesota Vikings ($2,500)
The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the second most DKFP/GM to opposing tight ends this season. In addition Smith Jr. is coming off a game in which he caught four of five targets for 64 yards, finishing with 10.4 DKFP respectively. The Vikings (1-4) are in desperate need for a win, therefore I am willing to take a chance on Minnesota keeping Irv Smith Jr. involved in the passing game. At $2,500 on DraftKings, the risk is very minimal, but the upside is most certainly there. Give me Smith Jr. in my high reward GPP lineups this week.
Defense
The Dolphins defense dismantled the San Francisco 49ers last week, finishing the game with five sacks, two interceptions and one fumble recovery, good for 12 DKFP. Matter of fact, Miami ranks T-7th in the league with 14 sacks through five games . In addition the New York Jets may be without starting left tackle, Mekhi Becton (shoulder) this week. DraftKings sharply increased the Dolphins price $500 after last week, but against an aging Joe Flacco and a potentially banged up Jets O-Line, I think the Dolphins still make for a great bargain at $2,900 on DraftKings.
These are just some of the players we will have in our GPP and Cash lineups for DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks: Sunday Main Slate. Good Luck, and may your screens go green.
Let us know what you think of our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks.
by Tommy | Oct 10, 2020 | Daily Fantasy, NFL
Week 5 is here and so too is the reminder that COVID-19 is unfortunately still with us. While I feel the NFL has done a pretty good job of containing the virus up to this point, it is now starting to run rampant as the league scrambles to adjust policies and schedules. Nonetheless, we have plenty of games on the schedule this Sunday. Now, let’s get into the players we like on DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks: Sunday Main Slate.
Let me be perfectly clear, the Dallas Cowboys, are currently ten-point favorites and should absolutely demolish the Giants this week. First off, the Giants will be without playmakers RB Saquon Barkley (Knee) and WR Sterling Shepard (toe). And sadly, Big Blue has not put up twenty points in a game this season, averaging a dismal 11.8 points scored per game, ranking dead last in the NFL.
Hear Me Out
The outlier for Daniel Jones is that although the Cowboys offense has been putting up (31.5 pts/GM), conversely Dallas’ defense has allowed a league-high 36.5 points per game. Jones has had his struggles this season, as his 889 passing yards, two touchdowns, and five interceptions are evidence of. However, it is worth noting Jones has faced some tough defenses in the Steelers, Bears, 49ers, and the Rams, all of who rank in the top seven in the fewest points allowed. With his rushing upside (416 yards and 2 TD throughout 16 games) and few weapons at his disposal, Jones may be asked to do a lot this Sunday. Again, I believe the Cowboys win, but I am going to have plenty of exposure to Jones in GPP’s due to his cheap price.
Stay With Me
Furthermore, my belief is that the Giants will be playing from behind on Sunday. In addition to their cheap prices, all three New York pass catchers, who subsequently own nearly 60% of the Giant’s total passing targets are in play this week. I will try to limit to just two pass catchers in most of my lineups, but won’t shy away from using all three depending on my roster builds.
Let’s keep It Going With…
The acquisition of defensive backs James Bradberry and Logan Ryan has certainly improved the Giants pass defense. Through four games, New York has allowed 221.5 passing yards/GM, which is an upgrade from last year’s 264 passing yards/GM. According to PFF, Bradberry ranks as the second-best cornerback with an 83.0 overall grade. Alternatively, instead of rostering WR Amari Cooper, I choose to spend the extra $400 and grab workhorse RB Ezekiel Elliott. Moreover, the Giants have allowed 106.8 rushing yards/GM and 25.4 DKFP/GM to opposing running backs. It should be noted we are finally seeing Elliot involved in the Cowboys passing attack. HALLELUJAH! Through four games, Elliott is averaging nearly 8 passing targets/GM. Thus at $7,800 on DraftKings, I will take the volume with Elliott in a potentially high scoring game.
Running Back
The Chiefs are currently 13-point home favorites versus the Las Vegas Raiders in a game projected for 55 total points. On the season, Las Vegas has allowed a monstrous 38 DKFP/GM to opposing running backs. To put that in a better perspective, that is an average of 113 rushing yards, 69 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns per game to their opponent’s backfields. I don’t think I have to say it, but I guess I will, “THAT IS BAD, VERY, VERY BAD. HOWEVER, VERY GOOD FOR EDWARDS-HELAIRE.
Edwards-Helaire has looked solid in his rookie year, as his 71-304-1 rushing line and 14-129-0 receiving line are evidence of. Furthermore, he gets the benefit of being the No. 1 running back in an Andy Reid offensive system. Of course, he also has the NFL’s 2018 MVP and 2020 Super Bowl MVP in Patrick Mahomes alongside him. Basically, Clyde Edwards-Helaire appears to be in a prime volume spot Sunday. I will gladly roster CEH in all DraftKings formats this week and you can thank me on Monday. You’re welcome in advance.
Wide Receiver
What needs to be said about Hopkins these days? He owns a 32.8% target share, a 39-397-1 receiving line, and is averaging 22.7 DKFP/GM through four games, not bad. The Jets pass defense has been pretty decent in 2020, allowing 240 passing yards/GM and 33.6 DKFP/GM to opposing WR’s. However, it’s worth noting that outside of Stefon Diggs, who caught eight passes for 86 yards in week one versus the Jets, they haven’t faced many tough wideouts in 2020. The 49ers, Colts, and Denver Broncos all relied on the running games against the Jets. Despite that, I do not see the Cardinals following that same formula. For the Cardinals to win, I believe they do what the Buffalo Bills did, and use their No. 1 wide receiver to expose a young Jets secondary. D’Hop will be in my in cash lineups for sure this week.
Tight End
Trey Burton Indianapolis Colts ($2,900)
Burton (calf) returned to action last week versus the Bears. Thus, he finished the game with an uninspiring 2-16-0 receiving line but did see five total targets, which led all Colt’s tight ends. The Colts are likely to continue rolling out two and three tight end sets. Especially considering how thin they are at the wide receiver as both Michael Pittman Jr and Parris Campbell are on IR. While it may be tough to zero in on which of the Colts tight ends will produce each week, I am willing to take some shots on Trey Burton against a Cleveland Browns defense that has allowed 19.9 DKFP/GM to opposing tight ends. I’m not ashamed to roll the dice in big GPPs with Burton.
Defense
The Texans have fired head coach Bill O’Brien and have replaced him with Romeo Crennel, who is set to become the oldest head coach in NFL history (73 years and 112 days old). First off, Crennel is familiar with the team, having been with Houston since 2014 as a defensive coordinator and assistant head coach. In addition, he finished the 2016 year with the NFL’s #1 ranked defense as the Texans defensive coordinator. Secondly, the Texans face the Jacksonville Jaguars, who offensively rank 19th in total offensive yards/GM. Not to mention the Jags have allowed an average of three sacks per game. Lastly, at the near minimum price on DraftKings, I like the Texan’s chances of getting after Gardner Minshew and forcing a couple of turnovers and possibly gifting us with the all mighty defensive touchdown.
These are just some of the players we will have in our GPP and Cash lineups for DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks: Sunday Main Slate. Good Luck, and may your screens go green.
Let us know what you think of our DraftKings NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks.
Bonus Wagers
Here are just a few of the NFL wagers we will be on in week 5.
Arizona Cardinals -7½ +100
Cincinnati Bengals +13 -125
New York Giants/Dallas Cowboys over 54 +100
Seattle Seahawks -7 -105
