Jokic is my top stud to pay up for on the entire slate. With Jamal Murray (ankle), Paul Millsap (knee) and Mason Plumlee (foot) off the court, Jokic is seeing an insane 30.9% usage rate and 1.49 FPTS/MIN. In two meetings this year against Memphis, Jokic is averaging 10.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 19.7 points, good for 46 DKFP respectively. It is worth noting that in those games Murray, Milsap, and Plumlee all played. Without them, the “Joker” should wreak havoc in this spot.
Usually I like to stack centers with guards, but I am willing to make an exception here. Porter Jr. Is another beneficiary to all of Denver’s injuries. He is seeing an uptick in usage percentage (21%) and is scoring a massive 1.22 FPTS/MIN with the three mentioned Nuggets off the court. Memphis plays at the 4th highest pace in the league (105.6) and ranks 20th in Defensive Efficiency (109.2). With that in mind and due to the myriad of injuries on Denver, I really like the potential upside of Michael Porter Jr. tonight.
“Triple J” has been on a tear lately, averaging 34.7 DKFP/GM over his last four games. He is another player who should see an increase in usage and minutes as Bruno Caboclo (knee) is out and Jae Crowder (knee) is listed as doubtful versus the Nuggets. With those two off the court, Jackson Jr. leads the Grizzlies with a 27.2% usage rate and an impressive 1.10 FPTS/MIN. The Nuggets rank 25th versus opposing Power Forwards and are dealing with their own injuries in the frontcourt, which sets up well for Jackson in the paint.
When it comes to my favorite value plays tonight there are two players that stand out.
Cleveland is on the tail end of a back to back and have already ruled out Darius Garland (rest) and Kevin Porter Jr (ankle) is currently questionable. With them off the court, Dellavedova is scoring 0.67 FPTS/MIN. The New Orleans Pelicans rank 4th in Pace (105.6) and 22nd in Defensive Efficiency. If Porter Jr is ultimately ruled out, I will take a flyer on Dellavedova at the minimum price (especially if he is starting). Dante Exum ($3,100) is also a good value and works as a pivot if he starts.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (shoulder) has been ruled out tonight versus the Washington Wizards. Since salaries were set last night, Ilyasova should be a lock-in everyone’s lineups tonight at $3,300. With Antetokounmpo off the court this season, Ilyasova has seen his usage rate jump to 17.5 % and is scoring 1.07 FPTS/MIN. Washington ranks dead last in Rebound Rate (47.8) and Defensive Efficiency (113.9). Ilyasova should push for north of 20 minutes in this spot and if he does, he should have no trouble paying off his $3,300 price tag.
These players will be well represented in our DraftKings Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups for (1/28/2020). Good luck and may your screens be green.
The Green Bay Packers (14-3) travel to Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers (14-3) for the second time this season at 6:40 ET. This time however one team will be crowned NFC champions and represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIV from Miami.
The current line as of this writing:
Line
ML
Green Bay Packers
46.5
+260
San Francisco 49ers
-7.5
-330
In the first meeting this season on November 24th between these two historic franchises, the 49ers prevailed 37-8 at home. The Packers currently lead the all-time series 36-31-1 and hold a slim 4-3 edge in postseason matchups.
Green BayPackers
I believe the Packers will need to get their ground game going to allow Aaron Rodgers to take some downfield shots against this 49ers number one ranked pass defense. Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams will need to set an early tone on the ground today. Problem is, Jones had just 38 yards an no TDs in the loss earlier this season to S.F. The Packers have however rushed for 137 ypg over their last 5 games and will need that continued production if they want to stay in this one. Rodgers has to play better than he did in the previous matchup against S.F. going for just 104 yards and 1 TD if Green Bay is to be competitive. Defensively the Packers are only allowing 15.7 ppg over their last six contests and did hold the Niners to only 112 rushing yards in their earlier matchup this season. The Packers MUST have a strong rush defense against the Niners today.
San Francisco 49ers
Run, run, run! The Niners game plan will come as no surprise to anyone. With three able rushers Raheem Mostert (772 yards, 8 TDs), Matt Brieda (623 yards, 1 TD) and Tevin Coleman (544 yards, 1 TD) the Niners were 2nd in rushing attempts this season averaging (32.1) per game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 3978 yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs as the Niners finished 13th in the league with 237 passing ypg. Jimmy looks to TE George Kittle (1053 yards, 5 TDs) when the Niners need to throw the ball more often than his outside receivers. The Niners did hold a very good Minnesota Vikings offenses to just 21 rushing yards last week and are only allowing 99 rushing ypg at home this season.
This game will be determined by who controls the ground game on offense, who plays better run defense and who can defend the occasional deep ball. I expect a close, well-coached game with few turnovers. Who wins is not where we will be looking to place our wager but I’ll gladly take the under 46.5-104 (Pinnacle) in this contest.
There you have it cappers, your free NFC Championship prediction for Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck to everyone, enjoy the sweat and cash those tickets.
The NFL season will be coming to an end soon and the LSU Tigers just capped off the NCAAF season as National Champions but the NBA is still alive and well. Here at FHW.com we now turn our attention to giving you, our loyal readers, three of our DFS guru Tommy Baker’s daily picks. Now, onto the good stuff.
Harden is the most expensive player on the DraftKings main slate tonight. The price tag is totally justified as Russell Westbrook will be resting on the front end of the Rockets back to back. The last game Westbrook sat out was January 8th against the Atlanta Hawks, where Harden finished with 81 DKFP (41 PTS, 10 AST, 10 REB). He now gets a great matchup with a Memphis Grizzlies team that ranks 28th against opposing guards, 21st in Defensive Efficiency and 4th in Pace. Vegas currently has the game total set and 240.5 (highest on the slate) and the Rockets favored by 5 points. In a fast-paced matchup, against a below-average defense and without Westbrook, Harden has enormous upside even with his lofty price tag.
Forward – Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers ($10,000)
Leonard is the other stud I want in my lineups, especially with Paul George (hamstring) already ruled out tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The last two games (without George) Kawhi has taken a total of fifty shots, averaged 33 real-life points/GM and 54.5 DKFP/GM. Cleveland ranks 29th in Defensive Efficiency and is playing on the tail end of a back to back. With the 3rd highest implied team total (119.5), I expect the Clippers to roll over the Cavs, with Leonard being a huge part of their success.
Since I’m paying up for two studs, I’m choosing to pay down at Center tonight with DeAndre Jordan versus the Utah Jazz. Although Jarrett Allen is the starter in Brooklyn, Jordan is still seeing at least 20 minutes/GM. The veteran big man may be on the verge of a big game soon, as he has averaged 22.8 DKFP/GM over his last three games. The match up with Rudy Gobert may not be ideal, but Jordan has shown he can compete with the Utah Center. On November 12th, 2019, Jordan scored a massive 50.8 DKFP (15 PTS, 17 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL, 2 BLK) in 30 minutes against Gobert. At only $4,400, I’ll take a shot at Jordan today, in the hopes he can put up another big game against the Jazz.
These three players will be well represented in our DraftKings Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups for (1/14/20). Good luck and may your screens be green.
Happy New Years Cappers! We are glad to welcome back contributing horse racing handicapper Mark to kick off 2020 with his expert analysis into a horse Mark feels is worth taking a look at.
I handicap horse racing primarily based on specific situations that have produced profits historically (backtesting) and have continued to do so in live (out of sample) testing. From time to time, I will post my horse picks here at freehandicappingwagers.com, highlighting a handful of my better angles. Variables I consider include but are not limited to:
Surface
Weather
Distance
Experience
Running Style
Rest
Trainer/Jockey/Horse Interactions
Recent Race Outcomes
The theory is that certain situations will be chronically undervalued by bettors – sometimes enough to overcome the massive track takeout. All testing is done using win bets only, though it stands to reason that place and show bets should show a similar edge.
Tonight’s horse is #4 Arties Game in Race 5 ($10k Maiden Claiming) at Delta Downs. He’s a three-year-old colt coming down in class, making his fourth start after being scratched by trainer Sarah Delany in his last scheduled race (Nov 30).
This sets up a situation that might scare off some bettors and push his odds a touch longer than the Morning Line of 3/1. The full angle (with a couple more variables) has produced an ROI of more than +10% over a sample of 200+ starts last six months.
For this reason, I’m on – Delta Downs R5 #4 Arties Game(3/1)
There you have it cappers, a free horse racing pick for 1/1/2020 to start off your 2020. Good luck and Happy New Year!
