The 2022 NCAA Men’s Tournament is down to the Final Four – One of my favorite events on the entire sports calendar. We get some very familiar names – Duke (#2), North Carolina (#8), Villanova (#2), and Kansas (#1). These four programs have combined for an impressive 17 national championships. The storylines are too juicy to break down here, as our only focus is to give our best Final Four betting picks for the two games that will decide who is to compete in this year’s Championship game. Let’s get to our 2022 NCAA Men’s Final 4 betting picks.

KANSAS VS. VILLANOVA

Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 6:09pm EDT 

Time: 6:09 p.m. ET | TBS

Spread: Kansas -4.5 

Moneyline:  Kansas (-191) | Villanova (+166)

Over/Under: 134.0

These two teams know each other well, having met four times in the past five seasons, with Nova winning three of those contests, including a Wildcats win over Kansas in the Final Four in 2018. 

Villanova’s celebration after defeating Houston on Saturday to reach the Final Four was tempered by an injury suffered by Guard Justin Moore with just under a minute to play in the game. Moore limped off in what turned out to be a season-ending Achilles injury for the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer. Villanova, in the tournament, has also featured a lineup that only went six deep; thus, coach Jay Wright will need to adjust his lineup and bench usage for this matchup against Kansas. 

Senior guard Colin Gillespie leads Nova with 15.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Forward Jermaine Samuel contributes 11.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per contest. Guard Caleb Daniels adds 10.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game. 

These teams play at completely different paces. The Jayhawks push the ball averaging 78.3 PPG, while Nova plays at a slower pace averaging 71.9 PPG. But don’t be fooled by the difference in scoring. Nova runs a calculated offense that limits their turnovers, only 9.9 per game as opposed to the Jayhawks, who average 12.3 turnovers per contest.

The #1 seed Jayhawks forward Ochai Agbaji leads Kansas averaging 18.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game. At the same time, forward Christian Braun adds 14.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. Sophomore forward Jalen Wilson chips in 11.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game to round out the Jayhawk’s primary offensive options. 

With Justin Moore out for Nova, Kansas should be able to squeak out a win and advance to the championship game but expect a close one. Once the line moved up from 4.0 to 4.5, I jumped on Nova.

Pick: Villanova +4.5

DUKE (2) VS. UNC (8)

Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 8:59pm EDT 

Time: 8:49 p.m. ET | TBS

Spread:  Duke -4.0

Moneyline: Duke (-190) | UNC (+165)

Over/Under: 151.5

We all know by now that this is the first meeting between these two bitter rivals in March Madness. We also know this is potentially Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last career game. Wait, I said no juicy storylines. Oh well, this was just too good to pass up. Ok, back to the capping. 

These teams split a pair of regular-season meetings, each winning by double digits on the road. So who holds the edge, and how should we bet this game?

First, let’s look at the Blue Devils. Duke is the eighth-highest scoring offense in college basketball at 80.1 points per game on strong shooting splits of 56.3% from two and 37% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Duke is still well above average, ranking 64th in the country allowing 67.4 PPG.

Forward Paolo Banchero is projected to be a top pick in the upcoming NBA draft. Banchero has impressed all season, averaging 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game, garnering second-team All-American honors. In addition, forward Wendell Moore Jr. contributed 13.5 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.4 steals per game, while center Mark Williams was good for 11.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks per game. 

Duke has won three of their four tournament games by at least nine points.

As for UNC, The Tar Heels are 28th nationally in scoring offense at 78.1 points per game on shooting splits of 50.8% from two and 36.1% from beyond the arc. Defensively, UNC surrenders 71.1 points per game allowed, with opponents shooting 47.5% from two and 34% from beyond the arc.

Forward Armando Bacot led the Tar Heels with 16.5 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game on 58.6% shooting from the field. Guard Caleb Love adds 15.7 points and 3.7 assists per game, while forward Brady Manek is good for 15.2 PPG. 

Even though North Carolina has covered the spread in all four NCAA Tournament games and has put together an inspiring Cinderella run, I feel the Tar Heels’ season is about to end against the rival Blue Devils.

Pick: Duke -4, lean over 151.5

Enjoy the games and remember to bet responsibly.

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